4 boxes, 8 balls

There are four boxes. Each contains 2 balls. The first box has a red and a white ball in it. The remaining three boxes each have two white balls in them.

A ball is picked at random from box 1 and put in box 2.
Then a ball is picked at random from box 2 and put into box 3.
Then a ball is picked at random from box 3 and put into box 4.
Finally, a ball is picked from box 4.

The probability that the ball picked from box 2 is red, given that the final ball picked from box 4 is white can be written as a b \dfrac ab , where a a and b b are coprime positive integers, find a + b a+b .


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The answer is 61.

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2 solutions

Geoff Pilling
May 11, 2016

Let R2 = probability that a red ball was picked from the second box

Let W4 = probability that a white ball was picked out from the fourth box

Using Baye's theorem ,

P ( R 2 W 4 ) = P ( W 4 R 2 ) P ( R 2 ) P ( W 4 ) = ( 8 / 9 ) ( 1 / 6 ) 53 / 54 = 8 53 P(R2|W4) = \frac{P(W4|R2)*P(R2)}{P(W4)} = \frac{(8/9)*(1/6)}{53/54} = \frac{8}{53}

And 8 + 53 = 61 8 +53 = \boxed{61}

I can't believe it! I made a computation error in finding P ( W 4 ) P(W4) !!

Miraj Shah - 5 years, 1 month ago

Your problems are nice.

Keshav Tiwari - 5 years, 1 month ago

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Hey, thanks Keshav! :)

Geoff Pilling - 5 years, 1 month ago

Is it ok to do it like this:

First we use bayes theorem to find the probability that the red ball was drawn from the first bag ( say this is P1) Then find the probability that it wad drawn from bag2 (say P2) using bayes theorem. Then we find the answer as P1.P2? The two solutions are equivalent right?

Nice problem by the way!

Milind Blaze - 5 years, 1 month ago

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Ah yes... I think this works too... Thanks for your input!

Geoff Pilling - 5 years, 1 month ago

Using Spanning Tree Using Spanning Tree

Andrew Mason - 5 years, 1 month ago

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Nice write up! :)

Geoff Pilling - 5 years, 1 month ago
Kevin Wang
Oct 15, 2020

Let (R/W)N is the probability that the ball from the N-th box is Red/White

P ( R 2 W 4 ) = P ( R 2 W 4 ) P ( W 4 ) P(R2|W4) = \frac {P(R2 ∩ W4)}{P(W4)}

P ( W 4 ) = 1 P ( R 4 ) = 1 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 3 = 53 54 P(W4) = 1 - P(R4) = 1 - \frac {1}{2} \cdot \frac {1}{3} \cdot \frac {1}{3} \cdot \frac {1}{3} = \frac {53}{54}

Now we need to find P ( R 2 W 4 ) P(R2 ∩ W4)

P ( R 2 ) = 1 2 1 3 = 1 6 P(R2) = \frac {1}{2} \cdot \frac {1}{3} = \frac {1}{6}

P ( R 2 W 4 ) = P ( R 2 ) P ( R 2 R 4 ) P(R2 ∩ W4) = P(R2) - P(R2 ∩ R4)

Obviously, P ( R 2 R 4 ) = P ( R 4 ) P(R2 ∩ R4) = P(R4) because if the last ball is red, then every ball drawn is red

P ( R 2 W 4 ) = 1 6 1 54 = 4 27 P(R2 ∩ W4) = \frac {1}{6} - \frac {1}{54} = \frac {4}{27}

P ( R 2 W 4 ) = 4 27 53 54 = 8 53 P(R2|W4) = \frac {\frac {4}{27}}{\frac {53}{54}} = \frac {8}{53}

8 + 53 = 61 8 + 53 = \boxed {61}

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