There are four boxes. Each contains 2 balls. The first box has a red and a white ball in it. The remaining three boxes each have two white balls in them.
A ball is picked at random from box 1 and put in box 2.
Then a ball is picked at random from box 2 and put into box 3.
Then a ball is picked at random from box 3 and put into box 4.
Finally, a ball is picked from box 4.
The probability that the ball picked from box 2 is red, given that the final ball picked from box 4 is white can be written as b a , where a and b are coprime positive integers, find a + b .
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I can't believe it! I made a computation error in finding P ( W 4 ) !!
Your problems are nice.
Is it ok to do it like this:
First we use bayes theorem to find the probability that the red ball was drawn from the first bag ( say this is P1) Then find the probability that it wad drawn from bag2 (say P2) using bayes theorem. Then we find the answer as P1.P2? The two solutions are equivalent right?
Nice problem by the way!
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Ah yes... I think this works too... Thanks for your input!
Let (R/W)N is the probability that the ball from the N-th box is Red/White
P ( R 2 ∣ W 4 ) = P ( W 4 ) P ( R 2 ∩ W 4 )
P ( W 4 ) = 1 − P ( R 4 ) = 1 − 2 1 ⋅ 3 1 ⋅ 3 1 ⋅ 3 1 = 5 4 5 3
Now we need to find P ( R 2 ∩ W 4 )
P ( R 2 ) = 2 1 ⋅ 3 1 = 6 1
P ( R 2 ∩ W 4 ) = P ( R 2 ) − P ( R 2 ∩ R 4 )
Obviously, P ( R 2 ∩ R 4 ) = P ( R 4 ) because if the last ball is red, then every ball drawn is red
P ( R 2 ∩ W 4 ) = 6 1 − 5 4 1 = 2 7 4
P ( R 2 ∣ W 4 ) = 5 4 5 3 2 7 4 = 5 3 8
8 + 5 3 = 6 1
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Let R2 = probability that a red ball was picked from the second box
Let W4 = probability that a white ball was picked out from the fourth box
Using Baye's theorem ,
P ( R 2 ∣ W 4 ) = P ( W 4 ) P ( W 4 ∣ R 2 ) ∗ P ( R 2 ) = 5 3 / 5 4 ( 8 / 9 ) ∗ ( 1 / 6 ) = 5 3 8
And 8 + 5 3 = 6 1