A 5 Dice Game

If you start by rolling 5 5 fair dice and put away all dice showing a unique value, but re-roll any dice set that have the same value (one set at a time), and continue doing this until you have put away all the dice, then the expected sum of all the dice is p q \frac{p}{q} where p p and q q are relatively prime integers. Find p + q p + q .

For example, one sequence could be that you roll three 3 3 's and two 2 2 's for a partial sum of 3 + 3 + 3 + 2 + 2 = 13 3 + 3 + 3 + 2 + 2 = 13 , then you would re-roll the three 3 3 's to get two 6 6 's and one 2 2 for a partial sum of 13 + 6 + 6 + 2 = 27 13 + 6 + 6 + 2 = 27 , then you would put away the single 2 2 (since it is unique to that roll) and re-roll the two 6 6 's to get one 1 1 and one 2 2 for a partial sum of 27 + 1 + 2 = 30 27 + 1 + 2 = 30 , then you would put away both those dice (since they are different) and now re-roll the two 2 2 's (from the first roll) and get one 3 3 and one 4 4 for a final sum of 30 + 3 + 4 = 37 30 + 3 + 4 = 37 .


The answer is 47431.

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1 solution

Patrick Corn
Nov 15, 2019

Expectation is additive, so we can concentrate on one die. Every time we roll a die, the expected outcome is 3.5 , 3.5, so the expected sum equals 3.5 5 N 5 , 3.5 \cdot 5 \cdot N_5, where N 5 N_5 is the expected number of times we will roll a given die when it is one of 5. 5.

We get a system of equations as follows: N 2 = 1 6 N 2 + 1 N 3 = 1 36 N 3 + 10 36 N 2 + 1 N 4 = 1 216 N 4 + 15 216 N 3 + 75 216 N 2 + 1 N 5 = 1 1296 N 5 + 20 1296 N 4 + 150 1296 N 3 + 500 1296 N 2 + 1 \begin{aligned} N_2 &= \frac16 N_2 + 1 \\ N_3 &= \frac1{36} N_3 + \frac{10}{36} N_2 + 1 \\ N_4 &= \frac1{216} N_4 + \frac{15}{216} N_3 + \frac{75}{216} N_2 + 1 \\ N_5 &= \frac1{1296} N_5 + \frac{20}{1296} N_4 + \frac{150}{1296} N_3 + \frac{500}{1296} N_2 + 1 \end{aligned} Each of the fractions in the above system of equations is the probability that the die we roll will be part of a group of a given size with the same result. For instance, the coefficient of N 3 N_3 in the last equation is the probability that the die we roll will be a part of a group of 3 3 with the same result, which is the probability that exactly 2 2 of the other 4 4 dice match our die, which is ( 4 2 ) ( 1 6 ) 2 ( 5 6 ) 2 = 150 1296 . \binom{4}{2} \left( \frac16 \right)^2 \left( \frac56 \right)^2 = \frac{150}{1296}.

The solution of this system is N 2 = 6 5 N 3 = 48 35 N 4 = 2286 1505 N 5 = 18336 11137 \begin{aligned} N_2 &= \frac65 \\ N_3 &= \frac{48}{35} \\ N_4 &= \frac{2286}{1505} \\ N_5 &= \frac{18336}{11137} \end{aligned} and the expected sum is 18336 11137 35 2 = 45840 1591 , \frac{18336}{11137} \cdot \frac{35}2 = \frac{45840}{1591}, so the answer is 47431 . \fbox{47431}.

Great solution!

David Vreken - 1 year, 6 months ago

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