A bag contains a red marble and green marbles. When marbles are randomly drawn from the bag without replacement, let be the probability that n green marbles are drawn before the red marble is drawn. If , how many marbles are in the bag?
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We can solve for P n by writing it in terms of g. Because there are g + 1 marbles in the bag, with one removed after every drawing, P 6 = g + 1 g ⋅ g g − 1 . . . g − 4 g − 5 ⋅ g − 5 1 . The g + 1 g ⋅ g g − 1 . . . g − 4 g − 5 represents the probability that the first 6 drawings result in green marbles, while the g − 5 1 represents the probability that the seventh drawing results in a red marble. In a similar way, P 5 = g + 1 g ⋅ g g − 1 . . . g − 3 g − 4 ⋅ g − 4 1 .
When we simplify by cross cancelling, it turns out that both P 5 and P 6 equal g + 1 1 . P 5 + P 6 = g 2 − 3 7 g + 3 now turns to g + 1 2 = g 2 − 3 7 g + 3 .
We can now solve for g:
g + 1 2 = g 2 − 3 7 g + 3
Multiply both sides by g + 1 : 2 = g 2 − 3 7 g 2 + 4 g + 3
Multiply both sides by g 2 − 3 7 : 2 g 2 − 7 4 = g 2 + 4 g + 3
Move everything over to the left side: g 2 − 4 g − 7 7 = 0
Factorize the left side: ( g − 1 1 ) ( g + 7 ) = 0
Solve for g: From ( g − 1 1 ) ( g + 7 ) = 0 , we get g = 1 1 or g = − 7 ; however, since there can't be a negative number of green marbles, g = 1 1 is the only possible value for g.
Now, we know that there are 11 green marbles and 1 red marble, so there are 1 2 marbles in the bag.