A popular problem by Brilliant Member

A Brilliant member named Billy Bob Joe posts n n problems, where n n is a positive integer. The probability that exactly three of those problems will become popular is n n times the probability that exactly two of those problems will become popular. As n n gets larger and larger, the probability that a problem posted by Billy Bob Joe will become popular approaches a b , \frac{a}{b}, where a a and b b are coprime positive integers. Find a + b . a + b.

Details and Assumptions:

  • Assume that the probabilities of each problem becoming popular are equal and independent of each other.
  • A problem can only be either popular or not popular. In other words, the probability that a problem will become either popular or not popular is equal to 1.


The answer is 7.

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1 solution

Steven Yuan
Jul 3, 2017

Let p p be the probability that a problem posted by Billy Bob Joe will become popular. It follows that 1 p 1 - p is the probability that a problem posted by Billy Bob Joe will not become popular.

The probability that exactly 2 of Billy Bob Joe's n n problems will become popular is equal to ( n 2 ) p 2 ( 1 p ) n 2 , \displaystyle \binom{n}{2} p^2 (1 - p)^{n - 2}, and the probability that exactly 3 of the problems will become popular is equal to ( n 3 ) p 3 ( 1 p ) n 3 . \displaystyle \binom{n}{3} p^3 (1 - p)^{n - 3}. The binomial coefficients are there because we must select which three (or which two) problems will become popular.

From the problem statement, we have that

n ( n 2 ) p 2 ( 1 p ) n 2 = ( n 3 ) p 3 ( 1 p ) n 3 n ( n 2 ) ( 1 p ) = ( n 3 ) p n ( n ! 2 ! ( n 2 ) ! ) ( 1 p ) = n ! 3 ! ( n 3 ) ! p n ( 1 p ) = n 2 3 p 3 n 3 n p = ( n 2 ) p 3 n = ( 4 n 2 ) p p = 3 n 4 n 2 . \begin{aligned} n \binom{n}{2} p^2 (1 - p)^{n - 2} &= \binom{n}{3} p^3 (1 - p)^{n - 3} \\ n \binom{n}{2} (1 - p) &= \binom{n}{3} p \\ n \left ( \dfrac{n!}{2!(n - 2)!} \right ) (1 - p) &= \dfrac{n!}{3!(n - 3)!} p \\ n(1 - p) &= \dfrac{n - 2}{3} p \\ 3n - 3np &= (n - 2)p \\ 3n &= (4n - 2)p \\ p &= \dfrac{3n}{4n - 2}. \end{aligned}

As n n gets larger and larger, the value of p p will approach lim n 3 n 4 n 2 = 3 4 . \displaystyle \lim_{n \rightarrow \infty} \dfrac{3n}{4n - 2} =\dfrac{3}{4}. Thus, a + b = 3 + 4 = 7 . a + b = 3 + 4 = \boxed{7}.

It should be made clear in the problem that the probabilities of any problems becoming popular are equal and independent.

Jon Haussmann - 3 years, 11 months ago

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Edited the problem to make that clearer. Thanks!

Steven Yuan - 3 years, 11 months ago

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