A Brilliant member named Billy Bob Joe posts problems, where is a positive integer. The probability that exactly three of those problems will become popular is times the probability that exactly two of those problems will become popular. As gets larger and larger, the probability that a problem posted by Billy Bob Joe will become popular approaches where and are coprime positive integers. Find
Details and Assumptions:
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Let p be the probability that a problem posted by Billy Bob Joe will become popular. It follows that 1 − p is the probability that a problem posted by Billy Bob Joe will not become popular.
The probability that exactly 2 of Billy Bob Joe's n problems will become popular is equal to ( 2 n ) p 2 ( 1 − p ) n − 2 , and the probability that exactly 3 of the problems will become popular is equal to ( 3 n ) p 3 ( 1 − p ) n − 3 . The binomial coefficients are there because we must select which three (or which two) problems will become popular.
From the problem statement, we have that
n ( 2 n ) p 2 ( 1 − p ) n − 2 n ( 2 n ) ( 1 − p ) n ( 2 ! ( n − 2 ) ! n ! ) ( 1 − p ) n ( 1 − p ) 3 n − 3 n p 3 n p = ( 3 n ) p 3 ( 1 − p ) n − 3 = ( 3 n ) p = 3 ! ( n − 3 ) ! n ! p = 3 n − 2 p = ( n − 2 ) p = ( 4 n − 2 ) p = 4 n − 2 3 n .
As n gets larger and larger, the value of p will approach n → ∞ lim 4 n − 2 3 n = 4 3 . Thus, a + b = 3 + 4 = 7 .