A card from a pack of 52 trump cards is lost. From the remaining cards of the pack, two cards are drawn and are found to be both spades. Find the probability of the lost card being a spade.
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Let A be the event that the lost card is a spade and let B be the event that the two cards drawn are spades. Then
P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( B ) P ( A ∩ B ) = ( 4 1 ) ∗ ( 2 1 2 ) + ( 4 3 ) ∗ ( 2 1 3 ) ( 4 1 ) ∗ ( 2 1 2 ) = 6 6 + 3 ∗ 7 8 6 6 = 5 0 1 1 = 0 . 2 2 .
Comments: The probability that the lost card is a spade is 5 2 1 3 = 4 1 , and so the probability that the lost card is not a spade is 4 3 . If the lost card is a spade then we have only 1 2 spades left in the deck, and thus ( 2 1 2 ) possible combinations of two spades. If the lost card is not a spade then there are ( 2 1 3 ) possible combinations of two spades.