A question of Bayes' theorem

A card from a pack of 52 trump cards is lost. From the remaining cards of the pack, two cards are drawn and are found to be both spades. Find the probability of the lost card being a spade.


The answer is 0.22.

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4 solutions

Let A A be the event that the lost card is a spade and let B B be the event that the two cards drawn are spades. Then

P ( A B ) = P ( A B ) P ( B ) = ( 1 4 ) ( 12 2 ) ( 1 4 ) ( 12 2 ) + ( 3 4 ) ( 13 2 ) = 66 66 + 3 78 = 11 50 = 0.22 P(A | B) = \dfrac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} = \dfrac{(\frac{1}{4})*\binom{12}{2}}{(\frac{1}{4})*\binom{12}{2} + (\frac{3}{4})*\binom{13}{2}} = \dfrac{66}{66 + 3*78} = \dfrac{11}{50} = \boxed{0.22} .

Comments: The probability that the lost card is a spade is 13 52 = 1 4 \frac{13}{52} = \frac{1}{4} , and so the probability that the lost card is not a spade is 3 4 \frac{3}{4} . If the lost card is a spade then we have only 12 12 spades left in the deck, and thus ( 12 2 ) \binom{12}{2} possible combinations of two spades. If the lost card is not a spade then there are ( 13 2 ) \binom{13}{2} possible combinations of two spades.

Windi Chandra
Oct 21, 2014

Consider the card has not been lost, so 11 spades and 50 cards remaining after drawing two spades. Then if a card is lost, the probability of it being a spade=11/50=0.22

Surender Bhardwaj
Oct 10, 2014

As total no. Of cards are 52 and the probability of. Spades is 13/52. but two spades are drawn so no. of spades left to be =13-2=11, and total. No. Of Cards left to be equal to,,,,, total no. Of cards-no. Of cards drawn=52-3=49.....
so probability =11/49=0.22

You are wrong in your approach.

Led Tasso - 6 years, 8 months ago
Nicole Boudreau
Oct 10, 2014

A deck of cards has 13 cards of each suite for a total of 52 cards. Taking 2 spades out leaves 11 spades in the deck. 52 cards minus the 2 spades and the lost card leaves 49 cards in the deck, so there is a 11/49 chance of the lost card being a spade. 11/49=0.22

@Nicole Boudreau ur approach is not correct!

subham jyoti mishra - 6 years, 8 months ago

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