In my classroom, 40 students are sitting on 8 benches with 5 students on each. I am surprised to find that 4 of the 8 benches have at least two students who were born in the same month.
Is it likely that 4 or more of the benches would have this event?
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The probability that on any bench of 5 students no two students have the same birth month is 1 2 1 2 × 1 2 1 1 × 1 2 1 0 × 1 2 9 × 1 2 8 = 1 4 4 5 5 .
The probability that a bench has at least two students sharing a birth month is then 1 − 1 4 4 5 5 = 1 4 4 8 9 .
The probability that 4 or more of the 8 benches have students sharing birth months is thus
k = 4 ∑ 8 ( k 8 ) × ( 1 4 4 8 9 ) k × ( 1 4 4 5 5 ) 8 − k ≈ 0 . 8 5 3 > 0 . 5 ,
implying that this scenario is indeed quite likely, i.e., the answer is Yes .