A quick fix to Month Collision

In my classroom, 40 students are sitting on 8 benches with 5 students on each. I am surprised to find that 4 of the 8 benches have at least two students who were born in the same month.

Is it likely that 4 or more of the benches would have this event?

Yes No

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1 solution

The probability that on any bench of 5 students no two students have the same birth month is 12 12 × 11 12 × 10 12 × 9 12 × 8 12 = 55 144 \dfrac{12}{12} \times \dfrac{11}{12} \times \dfrac{10}{12} \times \dfrac{9}{12} \times \dfrac{8}{12} = \dfrac{55}{144} .

The probability that a bench has at least two students sharing a birth month is then 1 55 144 = 89 144 1 - \dfrac{55}{144} = \dfrac{89}{144} .

The probability that 4 or more of the 8 benches have students sharing birth months is thus

k = 4 8 ( 8 k ) × ( 89 144 ) k × ( 55 144 ) 8 k 0.853 > 0.5 \displaystyle \sum_{k = 4}^{8} \dbinom{8}{k} \times \left(\dfrac{89}{144}\right)^{k} \times \left(\dfrac{55}{144}\right)^{8 - k} \approx 0.853 \gt 0.5 ,

implying that this scenario is indeed quite likely, i.e., the answer is Yes \boxed{\text{Yes}} .

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