An inventor has made a fantastic new machine that can do many household chores. But what the inventor doesn't know is that he accidentally coded the machine to have a 1 2 5 chance of dusting the house, 3 1 chance of watering the garden and a 4 1 chance of cleaning the dishes. Every five minutes, the robot switches to do something new. So, by the end of one hour, how many times can we expect that the invention is going to clean the dishes?
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As per expected value wiki . This solution offers a more formal view of the problem.
Let X i mark the number of times the robot cleans the dishes in an interval i . Then we have the expected value of X i :
E [ X i ] = 4 1 ⋅ + 3 1 ⋅ 0 + 1 2 5 ⋅ 0 = 4 1
Because there is 5 6 0 = 1 2 intervals in an hour and E [ X i ] is the same for all i , we can then write:
E [ X ] = E [ i = 1 ∑ 1 2 X i ] = i = 1 ∑ 1 2 E [ X i ] = 1 2 ⋅ E [ X i ] = 1 2 ⋅ 4 1 = 3
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Since the machine has a one in four chance of cleaning the dishes, and the machine does each chore for 5 minutes, the machine is likely to clean the dishes for five minutes every 20 minutes. Since there are three "20 minutes" in an hour, we can expect the machine to clean the dishes 3 times a day, or 15 minutes an hour