Calvin wants to find out what proportion of all Brilliant users like physics. He wants to survey enough people to construct a confidence interval with a margin of error no greater than What is the least number of people Calvin needs to survey in order to achieve this?
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The margin of error of a confidence interval for a population proportion is given by
m = z ∗ n p ^ ( 1 − p ^ ) ,
where z ∗ is the critical value (depending on the confidence level), p ^ is the sample proportion, and n is the sample size. Since we do not know an approximate value for the proportion of Brilliant users that like physics, we take p ^ = 0 . 5 , since that maximizes the margin of error. Thus, we have
z ∗ n p ^ ( 1 − p ^ ) 1 . 9 6 n 0 . 5 2 n 1 . 9 6 ( 0 . 5 ) n n ≤ 0 . 0 2 ≤ 0 . 0 2 ≤ 0 . 0 2 ≥ ( 0 . 0 2 1 . 9 6 ( 0 . 5 ) ) 2 ≥ 2 4 0 1 .
This means Calvin needs to survey at least 2 4 0 1 Brilliant users in order to have a margin of error less than 2%.