A Survey of Confidence

Calvin wants to find out what proportion of all Brilliant users like physics. He wants to survey enough people to construct a 95 % 95\% confidence interval with a margin of error no greater than 2 % . 2\%. What is the least number of people Calvin needs to survey in order to achieve this?

Details and Assumptions

  • Take z 1.96 z^* \approx 1.96 for a 95 % 95\% confidence level.
  • Assume that Calvin's survey is unbiased.


The answer is 2401.

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1 solution

Steven Yuan
Jan 28, 2018

The margin of error of a confidence interval for a population proportion is given by

m = z p ^ ( 1 p ^ ) n , m = z^* \sqrt{\dfrac{\hat{p}(1 - \hat{p})}{n}},

where z z^* is the critical value (depending on the confidence level), p ^ \hat{p} is the sample proportion, and n n is the sample size. Since we do not know an approximate value for the proportion of Brilliant users that like physics, we take p ^ = 0.5 , \hat{p} = 0.5, since that maximizes the margin of error. Thus, we have

z p ^ ( 1 p ^ ) n 0.02 1.96 0. 5 2 n 0.02 1.96 ( 0.5 ) n 0.02 n ( 1.96 ( 0.5 ) 0.02 ) 2 n 2401. \begin{aligned} z^* \sqrt{\dfrac{\hat{p}(1 - \hat{p})}{n}} &\leq 0.02 \\ 1.96 \sqrt{\dfrac{0.5^2}{n}} &\leq 0.02 \\ \dfrac{1.96(0.5)}{\sqrt{n}} & \leq 0.02 \\ n &\geq \left ( \dfrac{1.96(0.5)}{0.02} \right )^2 \\ n &\geq 2401. \end{aligned}

This means Calvin needs to survey at least 2401 \boxed{2401} Brilliant users in order to have a margin of error less than 2%.

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