On a standard die one of the dots is removed at random with each dot equally likely to be chosen. The die is then rolled. What is the probability that the top face has an odd number of dots?
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Since there are 2 + 4 + 6 = 1 2 dots on the even-numbered faces of a standard die out of a total of 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 = 2 1 dots, there is a probability of 2 1 1 2 = 7 4 that the dot is removed from an even-numbered face and a probability of 2 1 9 = 7 3 that it will be removed from an odd-numbered face.
If the dot is removed from an even-numbered face then there will be 4 odd faces left, so the probability that an odd-numbered face is on top when the altered die is rolled is 6 4 = 3 2 .
If the dot is removed from an odd-numbered face then there will be just 2 odd faces left, giving us a probability of 6 2 = 3 1 that an odd number will be rolled.
Thus the desired probability is ( 7 4 ) ( 3 2 ) + ( 7 3 ) ( 3 1 ) = 2 1 1 1 .