An endless series of games

Omar and Rami are playing a series of games , each game has one winner ,

In each game Omar wins with a probability of 2 3 \frac{2}{3} independently of the other games ,

The first winner in two consecutive games is the winner of the series ,

What is the probability that Omar will win the series ?

2 3 \frac{2}{3} 16 21 \frac{16}{21} 7 9 \frac{7}{9} 13 18 \frac{13}{18} 11 15 \frac{11}{15}

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2 solutions

First case : Omar will win the first game .

Second case : Rami will win the first game .

I will give number 1 1 to the game that Omar win and number 2 2 to the game Rami win .

Because we want Omar to be the winner , Rami can't win two consecutive games , so ,

In the first case : the series of winners can be like :

1 , 1 1,1

1 , 2 , 1 , 1 1,2,1,1

1 , 2 , 1 , 2 , 1 , 1 1,2,1,2,1,1

...

So we get that the probability that Omar will win in this case is :

n = 2 { 2 3 } n { 1 3 } n 2 = 4 7 \sum_{n=2}^{\infty}{\left\{\frac{2}{3}\right\}}^n{\left\{\frac{1}{3}\right\}}^{n-2} = \frac{4}{7}

In the second case we get that the series of winners can be like :

2 , 1 , 1 2,1,1

2 , 1 , 2 , 1 , 1 2,1,2,1,1

2 , 1 , 2 , 1 , 2 , 1 , 1 2,1,2,1,2,1,1

...

So we get that the probability that Omar will win in this case is :

n = 2 { 2 3 } n { 1 3 } n 1 = 4 21 \sum_{n=2}^{\infty}{\left\{\frac{2}{3}\right\}}^n{\left\{\frac{1}{3}\right\}}^{n-1} = \frac{4}{21}

At the end we see that the probability that Omar will win the series is :

4 7 + 4 21 = 16 21 \frac{4}{7}+\frac{4}{21}=\frac{16}{21}

Parth Sankhe
Dec 14, 2018

Let A A denote the event that Omar wins, B B for Rami.

Probability = A A + B A A + A B A A + B A B A A + A B A B A A + B A B A B A A + . . . AA + BAA+ ABAA + BABAA+ ABABAA+ BABABAA + ...

= A A ( ( 1 + A B + A B A B + A B A B A B . . . ) + ( B + B A B + B A B A B . . . ) ) = AA((1+AB + ABAB +ABABAB...) + (B+BAB+BABAB...))

Applying sum of infinite GP,

= A A ( 1 1 A B + B 1 A B ) =AA(\frac {1}{1-AB} + \frac {B}{1-AB})

Putting A = 2 3 A=\frac {2}{3} and B = 1 3 B=\frac {1}{3} , we get the answer as 16 21 \dfrac {16}{21} .

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