Andy the Ant's Adventure

Andy the Ant is on a number line at the location 0. Each minute, he travels 1 unit to the right with probability 3 4 \frac{3}{4} and 1 unit to the left with probability 1 4 \frac{1}{4} . What is the expected value for Andy’s location after one hour?

0 15 20 30 40 45

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4 solutions

Eli Ross Staff
Sep 6, 2015

Let X i X_i be the forward distance in meters that Andy travels during the i i th minute and note that

E ( X i ) = 3 4 ( 1 ) + 1 4 ( 1 ) = 1 2 E(X_i) = \frac{3}{4}\cdot (1) + \frac{1}{4} \cdot (-1) = \frac{1}{2}

for all i . i. Then, the forward distance Andy has traveled after one hour is simply X 1 + X 2 + + X 60 . X_1+X_2+\ldots+X_{60}. By linearity of expectation,

E [ i = 1 60 X i ] = i = 1 60 E [ X i ] = 60 1 2 = 30. E\left[\sum_{i=1}^{60}X_i\right] = \sum_{i=1}^{60} E\left[X_i\right] = 60 \cdot \frac{1}{2} = 30.

Brilliant Method !! But can you tell us why you are multiplying 1 and -1 with 3/4 and 1/4 Respectively,

T h a n k s ! ! ! ! \color{#D61F06}{Thanks \quad \color{#EC7300}{ ! ! ! !}}

Syed Baqir - 5 years, 9 months ago

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because the directions are opposite. if we take displacement to the left as positive then right is taken as negative and vice versa. vectors!!

Zeeshan Turi - 5 years, 9 months ago

because of left and right

Jamil Khan - 5 years, 8 months ago

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thank you :D

Syed Baqir - 5 years, 8 months ago
Yellow Tomato
Sep 3, 2015

Because Andy moves left with probability 1/4 and right with probability 3/4 every minute, then you can expect Andy to move left 1 time and right 3 times every 4 minutes (just by multiplying by 4). This is a net change of 2 units to the right. Then, you can calculate that there are 15 groups of 4 minutes in an hour, so we multiply the net change of 2 units by 15 for a total of 30 units.

Awesome solution, now I understood. thanks for a simple solution.

Sonal Singh - 5 years, 9 months ago

In one minute, it move 3/4 unit forward & 1/4 unit back. So only 1/2 unit. In 60 minutes it moves 60 x 1/2 = 30 units.

Nice solution

Sonal Singh - 5 years, 9 months ago
Jamil Khan
Sep 20, 2015

each time he back half from right to left so after 60 mint he will reach to 30 unit

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