Answering BRILLIANT problems

On a particular day, I decide to answer 10 questions on BRILLIANT.

  • For the first question, I stand a 50% chance of answering it correctly.
  • For each question Q n Q_n , if Q n 1 Q_{n-1} was answered incorrectly, the probability of answering Q n Q_n correctly is halved.
  • For each question Q k Q_k , if Q k 1 Q_{k-1} was answered correctly, the probability of answering Q k Q_k incorrectly is halved.

Afterwards, I calculate how many I got correct. What is the least likely outcome for this number (among 0, 1, ..., 9, 10)?


The answer is 5.

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3 solutions

Siva Budaraju
Feb 7, 2018

Well, there is a logical answer.

If the answer was 0, then the answer could also be 10, as they have the same probability, and this would not be a correct problem as it has 2 answers.

If the answer was 1, then the answer could also be 9, as they have the same probability, and this would not be a correct problem as it has 2 answers.

And so on...

The only number which does not have another of equal probability is 5, which means the answer is 5, as it is the only answer which would not be ambiguous.

This is indeed true. Can you also include a logical reason into your solution of why this is the answer? (Not necessarily all the exact probabilities but some reasoning)

Stephen Mellor - 3 years, 4 months ago
Jerry McKenzie
Feb 8, 2018

This makes me want to write a program. The logical answer is that more streaks has increasingly high probabilities.

Allowing p(x=5) may have ( 10 5 ) = 252 \binom{10}{5}=252 possible ways, but this includes both alternating series of (1,0,1,0,1,0,1,0,1,0) and (0,1,0,1,0,1,0,1,0,1) that has 0 streaks.

These series both coming with a probability k = 1 10 2 k = 2 k = 1 10 k = 2 55 \prod_{k=1}^{10} 2^{-k}=2^{-\sum_{k=1}^{10} k}=2^{-55} .

We could also see that P(x=k)=P(x=10-k) and p(x=1)<p(x=0) and thus min(p) happens at k=5.

Using excel, I found the percents are as follows

P(x=0) = 28.907%

P(x=1) = 9.808%

P(x=2) = 4.960%

P(x=3) = 3.061%

P(x=4) = 2.253%

P(x=5) = 2.023%

P(x=6) = 2.253%

P(x=7) = 3.061%

P(x=8) = 4.960%

P(x=9) = 9.808%

P(x=10) = 28.907%

Yarden Gan
Feb 7, 2018

I tried 0 and 10, and then I realized it's a trick question and guessed 5. nothing very complicated, just guessing...

Can you include a logical reason into your solution of why this is the answer? (Not necessarily all the exact probabilities but some reasoning

Stephen Mellor - 3 years, 4 months ago

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