Are you sure this is fair?

Level 2

Tom and Henry take turns tossing a weighted coin with probability p p of getting heads . Tom wins if he gets tails before Henry gets heads, and likewise, Henry wins if he gets heads before Tom gets tails.

If Tom goes first, find the value of p p so that both players have the same probability of winning the game.


The answer is 0.61803399.

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2 solutions

Gabriel Chacón
Feb 12, 2019

Being p p the probability of getting heads and Henry the one who wins with heads, let's calculate Henry's chances of winning, which we want to be P = 1 2 P=\frac{1}{2} since the game has to be fair. For Henry to win, he must win at the 2nd turn after Tom loses the first, or at the fourth after Tom loses the third, and so on. But notice that the third turn is like starting the game over. This allows us to skip the infinite sum and write a simple equation for P P :

P = ( 1 p ) + p ( 1 p ) P P=(1-p)+p\cdot(1-p)\cdot P

For P = 1 2 P=\frac{1}{2} we get:

p 2 + p 1 = 0 p^2+p-1=0

The solution to this equation is the reciprocal of the golden ratio! 1 ϕ = 5 1 2 = 0.618033988... \quad \dfrac{1}{\phi}=\dfrac{\sqrt{5}-1}{2}=\boxed{0.618033988...}

Jordan Cahn
Feb 12, 2019

The probability of Tom winning is P ( Tom ) = ( 1 p ) Tails flip 1 + p × ( 1 p ) × ( 1 p ) Heads flip 1 , Tails flip 2 , Tails flip 3 + p × ( 1 p ) × p × ( 1 p ) × ( 1 p ) + = i = 0 ( 1 p ) n + 1 p n = ( 1 p ) i = 0 ( p p 2 ) n = ( 1 p ) ( 1 1 ( p p 2 ) ) Since 0 < p p 2 < 1 = 1 p p 2 p + 1 \begin{aligned} P(\text{Tom}) &= \overbrace{(1-p)}^{\color{#3D99F6}\text{Tails flip }1} + \overbrace{p\times(1-p)\times(1-p)}^{\color{#3D99F6}\text{Heads flip }1\text{, Tails flip }2\text{, Tails flip }3} +p\times(1-p)\times p\times(1-p)\times(1-p) + \cdots \\ &= \sum_{i=0}^\infty (1-p)^{n+1}p^n \\ &= (1-p)\sum_{i=0}^\infty (p-p^2)^n \\ &= (1-p)\left(\frac{1}{1-(p-p^2)}\right) \qquad\qquad {\color{#3D99F6}\text{Since }0<p-p^2<1} \\ &= \frac{1-p}{p^2-p+1} \end{aligned}

Now, if both players have the same probability of winning the game, we have that P ( Tom ) = 1 2 P(\text{Tom})=\frac{1}{2} . So 1 p p 2 p + 1 = 1 2 p 2 p + 1 = 2 2 p p 2 + p 1 = 0 p = 1 ± 5 2 p = 5 1 2 Taking the positive solution p = ϕ 1 Where ϕ is the Golden Ratio p 0.618 \begin{aligned} \frac{1-p}{p^2-p+1} &= \frac{1}{2} \\ p^2 - p + 1 &= 2-2p \\ p^2 + p - 1 &= 0 \\ p &= \frac{-1 \pm \sqrt{5}}{2} \\ p &= \frac{\sqrt{5} - 1}{2} && \color{#3D99F6}\text{Taking the positive solution} \\ p &= \phi - 1 && \color{#3D99F6}\text{Where }\phi\text{ is the Golden Ratio} \\ p &\approx \boxed{0.618} \end{aligned}

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