Bad Deal

An evil salesman has offered you a magic stone. You don't know the value of this stone right now—the only thing you know is that it is worth between 1 1 and 10 10 coins inclusive—only integer values permitted—and that the probability that the stone is worth x x is x 55 \frac{x}{55} . You have to pay the salesman between 1 1 to 10 10 coins, after which the salesman tells you the actual value of the stone. If the number of coins you give is greater than or equal to the value of the stone, you get the stone; if not, you don't get it. In either case, no change is given.

For example, if you pay the salesman 9 9 coins and the stone is worth 7 7 coins, you will receive the stone and have a net loss of 2 2 coins. However, if you pay the salesman 5 5 coins, you will not receive the stone and your net loss is 5 5 coins.

You know that paying only one coin will ensure the least expected loss, but how many coins would you have to pay in order to have the greatest expected loss?

6 7 3 9 4 10 8 5

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1 solution

Sam Zhou
Jul 28, 2019

The expected loss when you pay p p coins, E ( p ) E(p) , can be calculated as follows:

When p p is smaller than the value of the stone, v v : expected loss of p p with probability 1 p ( p + 1 ) 2 1-\frac{p(p+1)}{2} .

When p p is greater than or equal to v v : expected loss of p v p-v with probability v 55 \frac{v}{55} for all 1 v p 1≤v≤p .

This means that E ( p ) = p ( 1 p ( p + 1 ) 2 ) + i = 1 p i 55 ( p i ) E(p)=p(1-\frac{p(p+1)}{2})+\sum_{i=1}^p \frac{i}{55} (p-i) .

This can be simplified to E ( p ) = p i = 1 p i 2 55 = p 2 p 3 + 3 p 2 + p 330 E(p)=p-\sum_{i=1}^p \frac{i^{2}}{55}=p-\frac{2p^{3}+3p^{2}+p}{330} .

When the derivative of this function is zero, we find a maximum point. The derivative is 1 6 p 2 + 6 p + 1 330 1-\frac{6p^{2}+6p+1}{330} and is zero when p = 6.922 p=6.922 .

As E ( 6 ) = 4.345 E(6)=4.345 and E ( 7 ) = 4.455 E(7)=4.455 , you will have the greatest expected loss when you pay 7 \boxed{7} coins.

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