If in a bag there are 10 coins out of which 9 are fair coin and 1 coin has two tails. find the probability, after tossing a coin 5 times you do not get all 5 tails
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t o f i n d p ( n o t 5 / 5 t a i l s ) n o o f n o r m a l c o i n s = 9 n o . o f u n f a i r c o i n = 1 t o t a l n o . o f c o i n = 1 0 p ( 5 / 5 h e a d ) = p ( 5 h e a d ∩ n o r m a l c o i n s ) + p ( 5 h e a d ∩ u n f a i r c o i n ) p ( 5 h e a d ∩ n o r m a l c o i n s ) = p ( 5 h e a d ∣ n o r m a l c o i n s ) ∗ p ( n o r m a l ) p ( 5 h e a d ∣ n o r m a l c o i n s ) = ( 2 1 5 ) ∗ 1 0 9 = 1 / 3 2 ∗ 9 / 1 0 = 9 / 3 2 0 p ( 5 h e a d ∩ u n f a i r c o i n ) = p ( 5 h e a d ∣ u n f a i r c o i n ) ∗ P ( u n f a i r c o i n ) 1 ∗ 1 / 1 0 = 1 / 1 0 p ( 5 / 5 h e a d ) = 9 / 3 2 0 + 1 / 1 0 p ( n o t 5 / 5 h e a d ) = 1 − ( 9 / 3 2 0 + 1 / 1 0 ) p ( n o t 5 / 5 h e a d ) = 0 . 8 7 2
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We want to find P(not getting all 5 tails). So lets start by using the complement:
P(not getting all 5 tails) = 1 - P(getting all 5 tails)
Using the law of total probability we can rewrite P(getting all 5 tails) as follows:
P(getting all 5 tails) = P(all 5 tails | you picked a fair coin) * P(picking a fair coin) + P(all 5 tails | you picked the unfair coin) * P(picking the unfair coin) = (1/2)^5 * 9/10 + 1 * 1/10 = 41/320
Therefore, our final answer is 1 - 41/320 = .871875