bag full of points

If in a bag there are 10 coins out of which 9 are fair coin and 1 coin has two tails. find the probability, after tossing a coin 5 times you do not get all 5 tails


The answer is 0.871875.

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2 solutions

Gino Pagano
Oct 30, 2014

We want to find P(not getting all 5 tails). So lets start by using the complement:

P(not getting all 5 tails) = 1 - P(getting all 5 tails)

Using the law of total probability we can rewrite P(getting all 5 tails) as follows:

P(getting all 5 tails) = P(all 5 tails | you picked a fair coin) * P(picking a fair coin) + P(all 5 tails | you picked the unfair coin) * P(picking the unfair coin) = (1/2)^5 * 9/10 + 1 * 1/10 = 41/320

Therefore, our final answer is 1 - 41/320 = .871875

Simrat Singh
Oct 29, 2014

t o f i n d p ( n o t 5 / 5 t a i l s ) n o o f n o r m a l c o i n s = 9 n o . o f u n f a i r c o i n = 1 t o t a l n o . o f c o i n = 10 p ( 5 / 5 h e a d ) = p ( 5 h e a d n o r m a l c o i n s ) + p ( 5 h e a d u n f a i r c o i n ) p ( 5 h e a d n o r m a l c o i n s ) = p ( 5 h e a d n o r m a l c o i n s ) p ( n o r m a l ) p ( 5 h e a d n o r m a l c o i n s ) = ( 1 2 5 ) 9 10 = 1 / 32 9 / 10 = 9 / 320 p ( 5 h e a d u n f a i r c o i n ) = p ( 5 h e a d u n f a i r c o i n ) P ( u n f a i r c o i n ) 1 1 / 10 = 1 / 10 p ( 5 / 5 h e a d ) = 9 / 320 + 1 / 10 p ( n o t 5 / 5 h e a d ) = 1 ( 9 / 320 + 1 / 10 ) p ( n o t 5 / 5 h e a d ) = 0.872 to\quad find\quad p(not\quad 5/5tails)\\ no\quad of\quad normal\quad coins=9\\ no.\quad of\quad unfair\quad coin\quad =1\\ total\quad no.\quad of\quad coin=10\\ \\ p(5/5\quad head)=\\ p(5head\cap normal\quad coins)+p(5head\cap unfair\quad coin)\\ p(5head\cap normal\quad coins)=p(5head|normal\quad coins)*p(normal)\\ p(5head|normal\quad coins)={ (\frac { 1 }{ 2 } }^{ 5 })*\frac { 9 }{ 10 } \\ =1/32*9/10=9/320\\ p(5head\cap unfair\quad coin)=p(5head|unfair\quad coin)*P(unfair\quad coin)\\ 1*1/10=1/10\\ p(5/5\quad head)=9/320+1/10\\ p(not\quad 5/5\quad head)=1-(9/320+1/10)\\ p(not\quad 5/5\quad head)=0.872

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