Biased Coin

A biased coin is tossed repeatedly. Assume that the outcomes of different tosses are independent and the probability of heads is 2 3 \frac{2}{3} for each toss. What is the probability of obtaining an even number of heads in 5 tosses?

121 243 \dfrac{121}{243} 122 243 \dfrac{122}{243} 124 243 \dfrac{124}{243} 125 243 \dfrac{125}{243}

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1 solution

Andy Hayes
Dec 13, 2016

If the number of heads is even, then there will be 0, 2, or 4 heads among the five. Let X X be the number of heads among the 5 tosses.

If there are 0 heads, then all five tosses will be tails.

P ( X = 0 ) = ( 1 3 ) 5 = 1 243 P(X=0)=\left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^5=\frac{1}{243}

If there are 2 heads, then the remaining 3 tosses will be tails. There are ( 5 2 ) \binom{5}{2} combinations of 2 heads and 3 tails.

P ( X = 2 ) = ( 5 2 ) ( 2 3 ) 2 ( 1 3 ) 3 = 40 243 P(X=2)=\binom{5}{2}\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^2\left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^3=\frac{40}{243}

If there are 4 heads, then the remaining toss will be tails. There are ( 5 4 ) \binom{5}{4} combinations of 4 heads and 1 tails.

P ( X = 4 ) = ( 5 4 ) ( 2 3 ) 4 ( 1 3 ) = 80 243 P(X=4)=\binom{5}{4}\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^4\left(\frac{1}{3}\right)=\frac{80}{243}

Each of these events is mutually exclusive. Therefore, the probability that there is an even number of heads is:

P ( X = 0 ) + P ( X = 2 ) + P ( X = 4 ) = 121 243 . P(X=0)+P(X=2)+P(X=4)=\boxed{\frac{121}{243}}.

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