Birthday paradox, with a twist!

Imagine 5000 people in a birthday party. What is the probability that all of them have the same birthday?

A.

B.

C.

D.

D A B C

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1 solution

Long Plays
Mar 13, 2018

A common mistake is that each person should have a prob. of 1 365 \frac{1}{365} to have their birthday on a specific date. That means 5000 5000 people should have that prob. to the power of 5000 5000 ! That is wrong though!

The correct answer is B. Think of it as this:

What is the probability that 3 people have their birthday on the same date in 1 week ? (Mon - Sun)

The answer of it would be 1 49 \frac{1}{49} as for 2 people, the prob. is 1 7 \frac{1}{7} , or 7 49 \frac{7}{49} and 3 people are just 7 7 3 \frac{7}{7^3} , or 1 49 \frac{1}{49} !

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