Bomb The Target!!

In a bombing Attack By A Lockheed SR-71 Blackbird \textbf{Lockheed SR-71 Blackbird} such that there is 50% \textbf{50\%} Chance that any one bomb will strike the target.

Two direct hits \textbf{Two direct hits} are required to destroy the target Completely \textbf{Completely} .

How Many bombs must be dropped such that the target is destroyed 99% or better \textbf{destroyed 99\% or better} ?

Image Courtesy By Wikipedia .


The answer is 11.

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3 solutions

Wanchun Shen
Feb 5, 2015

For n bombs there is a probability of (n+1)/2^n not hitting the target.

When n>=11 p<1%

Pranjal Jain
Feb 22, 2015

Probability of hitting 99 % \geq 99\%\Rightarrow

Probability of not hitting 1 % = 0.01 \leq 1\%=0.01

Probability that none of n n shots will hit = 1 2 n =\dfrac{1}{2^n}

Probability that exactly one will hit = ( n 1 ) 1 2 n =\dbinom{n}{1}\dfrac{1}{2^n}

( 1 + n ) 2 n 0.01 \dfrac{(1+n)}{2^n}\leq 0.01 n 11 \Rightarrow n\geq 11

Ditto !! +1

A Former Brilliant Member - 6 years, 3 months ago

2 hits are required to destroy the target isn't it? Where's that in your solution?if you could kindly explain

Amartya Chakraborty - 2 years, 2 months ago

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He used the compliment of the probability that there will be 1 shot or 0 shots landed, giving the probability that at least 2 landed.

Tristan Goodman - 1 year, 3 months ago
Brock Brown
Feb 8, 2015

Using Python and Monte Carlo sampling:

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import random
drops = 0
trials = 100000
probability = 0.0
while probability < 0.99:
    yes = 0.0
    drops += 1
    for i in xrange(trials):
        hits = 0
        for i in xrange(drops):
            if random.choice((True, False)):
                hits += 1
            if hits == 2:
                yes += 1
                break
    probability = yes/trials
    print drops, probability
print "Answer:", drops

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