Integers from 1 to 100 are written on ping pong balls which are placed in a glass bowl. Radha picks one of them at random and puts it back. Shyam then picks one of the ping pong balls at random. The probability that Shyam draws a ball that has a bigger number than Radha's is "x". Find 1000x .
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How is the probability that Shyam picks a ball with a larger number half the probability for different numbers?
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My "alternate" answer was more intuitive than rigorous. Since the picks are random and since the ball is replaced, it doesn't matter who picks first. So the probability that Radha has a number bigger than Shyam's will be the same as the probability that Shyam has a number bigger than Radha's. Thus since the probability that they have different numbers is 1 0 0 9 9 , the probability that Shyam draws a bigger number than Radha's is
( 2 1 ) ( 1 0 0 9 9 ) = 2 0 0 9 9 .
I hope that this version of my "alternate" answer makes more sense. :)
The probability to pick the first ball is 1 0 0 1 .
If we picked ball1, then there are 99 balls bigger than ball1.
So, the probability was 1 0 0 1 ∗ 1 0 0 9 9 .
If we picked ball2, then there are 98 balls bigger than ball2.
So, the probability was 1 0 0 1 ∗ 1 0 0 9 8
If we picked ball3, then there are 97 balls bigger than ball3.
So, the probability was 1 0 0 1 ∗ 1 0 0 9 7
We can see that if we picked ball n , then there are 100 - n balls bigger.
So, the probability must be:
1 0 0 1 ∗ 1 0 0 9 9 + 1 0 0 1 ∗ 1 0 0 9 8 + 1 0 0 1 ∗ 1 0 0 9 7 + 1 0 0 1 ∗ 1 0 0 9 6 + … + 1 0 0 1 ∗ 1 0 0 2 + 1 0 0 1 ∗ 1 0 0 1
= 1 0 0 1 ( 1 0 0 9 9 + 9 8 + 9 7 + 9 6 + 9 5 + … + 3 + 2 + 1 )
And 1 + 2 + 3 + … + 9 7 + 9 8 + 9 9 = 2 9 9 ( 1 0 0 ) = 4 9 5 0
And we get x = 1 0 0 1 ∗ 1 0 0 4 9 5 0 ⇒ 1 0 0 0 x = 4 9 5
Really liked your solution... its simple as well as beautiful!! :)
If they pick the same number, Shyam cant draw a bigger ball. This happens with a chance of 1 0 0 1 . Thus the probability of them choosing different numbers is 1 0 0 9 9 . Note that now we can imagine choosing two random balls, and then assigning one to Shyam and one to Radha. Obviously there is a 2 1 chance that Shyam will get the bigger ball, so thus the total probability is 1 0 0 9 9 ⋅ 2 1 = 2 0 0 9 9 and the answer is 1 0 0 0 ( 2 0 0 9 9 ) = 4 9 5
If Radha picks 1, then Shyam has to pick any ball numbered 2 to 100. i.e., 99 possibilities. similarly if she picks 2, then he has to pick any number between 3 to 100 i.e, 98 possibilities. This goes on till she picks 99 numbered ball after which he has to pick 100th ball i.e,. a single possibility. So, total number of possible ways are 99+98+97+. . . . . .+1 which is the Summation of natural numbers from 1 to 99. That gives us 4950. This has to be divided by Total number of all events i.e, 100 x 100 (cos, She puts the ball back). thus x=4950/(100 x 100)=0.495 and 1000x=495
Radha can pick one 1 to 1 0 0 , and Shyam can pick 1 to 1 0 0 then total order pairs is 1 0 0 ∗ 1 0 0 . ( E ) = 1 0 0 0 0 0 The number of cases where Shyam draws a ball that has a bigger number than Radha's are equal to the number of cases where Radha draws a ball that has a bigger number than Shyam's, and exist 1 0 0 order pairs which both numbers are equal. So, total of cases which Radha draws a ball that has a bigger number than Shyam's can be 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 − 1 0 0 = 4 9 5 0 Finally, requiered probility is 1 0 0 0 4 9 5 0 = 0 . 4 9 5 and 1 0 0 0 x = 4 9 5
This problem also can be solved using geometry (areas)
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Each of the numbers 1 to 1 0 0 has a probability of 1 0 0 1 of being picked by Radha. If Radha picks ball n then the probability that Shyam draws a ball with a larger number is
1 0 0 1 0 0 − n = 1 − 1 0 0 n .
Thus the probability that Shyam draws a ball with a larger number than Radha's will be
x = ( 1 0 0 1 ) ∗ ∑ n = 1 1 0 0 ( 1 − 1 0 0 n ) =
( 1 0 0 1 ) ∗ ( 1 0 0 − ( 1 0 0 1 ) ∗ ∑ n = 1 1 0 0 n ) =
1 − ( 1 0 0 ∗ 1 0 0 1 ) ∗ ( 2 1 0 0 ∗ 1 0 1 ) = 1 − 2 0 0 1 0 1 = 2 0 0 9 9 .
Thus 1 0 0 0 x = 1 0 0 0 ∗ ( 2 0 0 9 9 ) = 4 9 5 .
Alternately, note that the probability that Shyam picks the same ball as Radha is 1 0 0 1 , and thus the probability that they pick different balls is 1 0 0 9 9 . Since the probabilities will be the same if Shyam picked first and Radha second, the probability that Shyam picks a ball with a larger number is just half the probability that they pick different numbers, i.e., ( 2 1 ) ( 1 0 0 9 9 ) = 2 0 0 9 9 , as found before.