Can You Roll The Die?

A fair die is rolled. The probability that the first time 1 occurs is when we have rolled an even number of times is:

5 36 \dfrac5{36} 1 2 \dfrac12 5 11 \dfrac5{11} 6 11 \dfrac6{11}

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2 solutions

Akhil Bansal
Dec 23, 2015

As there are infinite possible cases of getting 1 in even turns.

Let E 1 , E 2 , E 3 , E \color{#3D99F6}{E_1} , \color{#D61F06}{E_2} , \color{#20A900}{E_3} \ldots , E_{\infty} denotes the events of getting 1 in 2 trials, 4 trials , 6 trials and so on.

Let P(E) denotes the probability of getting 1 in even turns. P ( E ) = P ( E 1 ) + P ( E 2 ) + P ( E 3 ) + + P ( E ) P(E) = P(\color{#3D99F6}{E_1}) + P(\color{#D61F06}{E_2}) + P(\color{#20A900}{E_3}) + \ldots + P(E_{\infty}) P ( E ) = 5 6 × 1 6 + ( 5 6 ) 3 × 1 6 + ( 5 6 ) 5 × 1 6 + P(E) = \color{#3D99F6}{\dfrac{5}{6}\times\dfrac{1}{6}} + \color{#D61F06}{\left(\dfrac{5}{6}\right)^3\times\dfrac{1}{6}} + \color{#20A900}{\left(\dfrac{5}{6}\right)^5\times\dfrac{1}{6}}+ \ldots \infty Using infinite sum formula , P ( E ) = 5 36 1 25 36 = 5 11 P(E) = \dfrac{\dfrac{5}{36}}{1 - \dfrac{25}{36}} = \dfrac{5}{11}

Moderator note:

Good approach. For ease of understanding the solution, it is better to let the event E n E_n be the probability that it takes n n steps to end, and then finding the sum E 2 + E 4 + E 6 + E_2 + E_4 + E_6 + \ldots . Yes I know that it makes no difference mathematically, but it makes it semantically easier to read.

I thought after an even number of trials means after 2, 4, 6...non1!

Abdullah Yusuf Ali - 5 years, 5 months ago

I dint understand anything. Please clarify

Ashish Menon - 5 years, 5 months ago

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Ques :- getting 1 in even number of trials.
Strategy : getting 1 in 2 trials + getting 1 in 4 trials + getting 1 in 6 trails and so on..
(I have added them because they follow sum rule )

Probability of getting 1 in 2 trials is equal to product of not getting 1 in 1st trial and getting 1 in 2nd trial..
Probability of getting 1 in 4 trials is equal to product of not getting 1 in first three trials and then getting 1 in 4th trial.

Anything else you didn't understant ?

Akhil Bansal - 5 years, 5 months ago

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Thank you!!! Got it.

Ashish Menon - 5 years, 5 months ago

Lovely solution

Mardokay Mosazghi - 5 years, 5 months ago

why there is a power of 3 and 5 in (5/6) ?

Sanjoy Roy - 5 years, 5 months ago

Does this count the possibility of getting a 1 in the first try? I mean, after 0 trials still counts as after an even number of trials, right? If that's the case, shouldn't the answer be 1/2?

Gabriel Souza - 4 years, 5 months ago

The wording should be changed. It's unclear that the last toss is counted into the trials "after" which 1 appears.

Marta Reece - 4 years, 5 months ago

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In future, you can report the problem, which would bring it to the attention of the problem creator and staff.

I have clarified what "after an even number of trials is" refers to. Those who answered 6/11, which was a reasonable interpretation of the phrasing, have been marked correct.

Calvin Lin Staff - 4 years, 5 months ago
Stewart Gordon
Dec 23, 2015

I think the easiest way to think of this problem is to consider rolling two dice together: a red die and a blue die. Repeat until a 1 comes up. Consider the red die to represent the odd-numbered rolls, and the blue die the even-numbered rolls. If the red die shows a 1, it's equivalent to the first 1 coming up at an odd roll. If the red die doesn't show a 1, but the blue one does, then it's equivalent to the first 1 coming at an even roll. (In the scenario that both dice show 1s at this roll, the red one represents an earlier roll in the sequence of single rolls, and so is the one that matters.)

What matters is the probability distribution of the two possibilities at the roll when the first 1 comes. There are 11 possible rolls of the two dice that include a 1. Of these, 6 have the red die showing a 1; therefore there's a chance of 6 11 \frac{6}{11} of this outcome. On the other hand, 5 of the possible rolls have the red die showing 2-6 and the blue one showing 1 - so the probability of this happening is 5 11 \boxed{\frac{5}{11}} .

hey Stewart your solution seems good but please explain the statement : There are 11 possible rolls of the two dice that include a 1 .

Ujjwal Mani Tripathi - 5 years, 5 months ago

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Red 1, blue 2-6: 5 combinations

Red 1, blue 1: 1 combination

Red 2-6, blue 1: 5 combinations

Total 11

Stewart Gordon - 5 years, 5 months ago

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This is the most unique approach.I request the solution to be included in top solutions board. @Calvin Lin

Ujjwal Mani Tripathi - 5 years, 5 months ago

Well damn!

Albert Wen - 5 years, 5 months ago

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