2 0 men are held captive by a pirate lord, including two friends Jack and Tony.
The pirate decides to set 1 0 of them free. The 2 0 men are randomly divided into 1 0 pairs. Each pair of men then flip a fair coin to decide who goes free.
The probability that both Jack and Tony are set free is B A where A and B are co-prime positive integers. Find the value of A + B .
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Can you generalize the same argument if there are three friends instead of two and we want to find the probability that all three are set free?
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For 3 friends I'm getting a probability of 1 9 2 , for 4 friends a probability of 3 2 3 1 4 and for 5 friends a probability of 1 2 9 2 2 1 .
You're right, Snehal, this is a good problem to generalize. How about 5 friends among 1 0 0 captives? k friends among 2 n captives? The general formula would be a bit of a mess, I think. :)
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Sorry for late reply. As I commented at the other place, it really doesn't matter how these people are chosen and so probability is easy to calculate for any k .
The explanation looks clear to me!
nice solution
I read into it that each man in the pair flips a coin (man with heads wins, unless both are heads, then re-flip), which means there is a 3 1 * 3 1 probability for either Jack or Tony to win their freedom, thus 6 1 * 6 1 probability for both Jack or Tony to win their freedom. So, I came up with 1 9 1 8 * 6 1 = 6 8 4 1 8 = 3 8 1 , so A + B = 39.
Going back to the original problem as stated, apparently each man is assigned a side of the coin and one of the men in the pair flips the coin.
Just wanted to show how I read into it.
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Crud... can't seem to edit my post, so am clarifying here that I meant "...probability for both Jack and Tony..."
cool solution
nice solution
But why ignore the possibility when they are paired together? The probability of that happening is 1 9 1 , so the probability of them both being set free is 3 8 9 - 1 9 1 = 3 8 7 , so A+B=45.
I didn't get it why they must not be paired together. We have two cases.
Paired together, which probability is 1 9 1 . In this case they have a chance of being set free = 2 1
Not paired together, which probability is = 1 9 1 8 . In this case they have a chance of being both set free = 4 1
So in total the probability of them being both set free is 1 9 1 × 2 1 + 1 9 1 8 × 4 1 = 1 9 5 So A+B=24
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If they are paired together then only one of them can be set free, while the other must remain captive. Thus when they are paired together there is zero chance that both Jack and Tony are set free.
The answer is the same, by the way, as if he had randomly chosen the ten men to be set free: ( 1 0 2 0 ) ( 8 1 8 ) = 3 8 9 . (Or if you like: 2 1 ⋅ 1 9 9 .)
I think this makes intuitive sense.
Can you explain the "intuitive sense"? Why doesn't this change of format affect the final result?
Hint: Define a mapping between these two scenarios.
Yes, by symmetry every set of 10 sailors is equally likely. It doesn't matter if you select the set by enumerating all possible sets and choosing one at random or by using the pirates' framework for generating an outcome.
So you are saying that all this information is to confuse us. It's just finding probability for choosing 10 out of 20. In that case, I think you should get more upvotes.
To generalize for k friends and 2 n captives where k ≤ n :
The probability that none are in the same pair is: i = 1 ∏ k 2 n − ( 2 i − 1 ) 2 n − ( i + k − 1 )
The probability that all of them are the chosen one in their pair: 2 k 1
The probability that they are all free is the product of the two probability.
Which is equal to the fraction C(n,n-k)/C(2n,n) obtained using a set theory approach.
One thought. I am unable to explain. If someone can help me. How the probability is taken as 1/2 as the other pair can also have same result else the other pair can have first chance which is unaccounted. If both the pairs are allowed to flip the coin then 4 outcome is there then favourable outcome is 1/4.
There are going to be 10 people set free in the end. We can chose a Jack and a Tony from the freed group in ( 2 1 0 ) ways.
There are a total of ( 2 2 0 ) ways to chose Jack and Tony from a group of 20 people, so the final answer is ( 2 2 0 ) ( 2 1 0 ) = 2 0 ⋅ 9 1 0 ⋅ 9 = 3 8 9 → 4 7 .
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Jack and Tony must be in two different pairs to be both set free. The chance of this happening is 1 9 1 8 because Tony (for example) could be paired with 19 different people, and one of them is Jack.
Then they have to win in their pairs, which happens with probability 2 1 ⋅ 2 1 = 4 1 .
Thus, the total probability is 1 9 1 8 ⋅ 4 1 = 3 8 9 , so A + B = 4 7 .