Suppose you have a class of school children.
For the boys, the average test grade is 81 points with a standard deviation of 3 points. For the girls, the average test grade is 86 points with a standard deviation of 4 points.
What is the probability, in percent, that a randomly selected girl in your class has a higher test grade than a randomly selected boy in your class? Round your answer to the nearest percent.
Assumptions:
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From the information above, if we let G represent girls and B represent boys, we have:
- μ G = 8 6 , σ G = 4
- μ B = 8 1 , σ B = 3
The question is asking us for P ( G > B ) , or the probability of a girl test score being greater than the boy test score. This is equivalent to finding P ( G − B > 0 ) , or the probability of a girl test score MINUS the boy test score being greater than 0. And, since the test scores are Normally distributed, we can thus standardize this distribution.
z = σ x − μ ⟹ z G − B = σ G − B x − μ G − B
We can find μ G − B and σ G − B using rules for means and variances.
- μ G − B = μ G − μ B = 8 6 − 8 1 = 5
- σ G − B 2 = σ G 2 + σ B 2 = ( 4 ) 2 + ( 3 ) 2 = 2 5 ⟹ σ G − B = 2 5 = 5
Using the above z-score formula, we can standardize this distribution with x = 0 :
z G − B = 5 0 − 5 = − 1 .
Therefore, we have P ( G − B > 0 ) = P ( z > − 1 ) . Using a z-score table, we have that the area to the left of a z-score of − 1 is approximately 0 . 1 5 8 7 . However, we want the area GREATER than the z-score of − 1 , so it would be to the right. Therefore,
P ( G − B > 0 ) = P ( z > − 1 ) = 1 − ( 0 . 1 5 8 7 ) = 0 . 8 4 1 3 .
Rounded to the nearest percent, the probability that a randomly selected girl in your class has a higher test score than a randomly selected boy in your class is 8 4 % .