Class Test Scores

Suppose you have a class of school children.

For the boys, the average test grade is 81 points with a standard deviation of 3 points. For the girls, the average test grade is 86 points with a standard deviation of 4 points.

What is the probability, in percent, that a randomly selected girl in your class has a higher test grade than a randomly selected boy in your class? Round your answer to the nearest percent.

Assumptions:

  • The test scores are Normally distributed.
  • The event of picking a girl is independent from picking a boy.


The answer is 84.

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1 solution

Ralph James
Nov 8, 2016

From the information above, if we let G G represent girls and B B represent boys, we have:

- μ G = 86 , σ G = 4 \mu_{G} = 86, \sigma_{G}=4

- μ B = 81 , σ B = 3 \mu_{B} = 81, \sigma_{B} = 3

The question is asking us for P ( G > B ) P(G>B) , or the probability of a girl test score being greater than the boy test score. This is equivalent to finding P ( G B > 0 ) P(G-B>0) , or the probability of a girl test score MINUS the boy test score being greater than 0. And, since the test scores are Normally distributed, we can thus standardize this distribution.

z = x μ σ z G B = x μ G B σ G B z = \dfrac{x-\mu}{\sigma} \implies z_{G-B} = \dfrac{x-\mu_{G-B}}{\sigma_{G-B}}

We can find μ G B \mu_{G-B} and σ G B \sigma_{G-B} using rules for means and variances.

- μ G B = μ G μ B = 86 81 = 5 \mu_{G-B} = \mu_{G} - \mu_{B} = 86 - 81 = 5

- σ G B 2 = σ G 2 + σ B 2 = ( 4 ) 2 + ( 3 ) 2 = 25 σ G B = 25 = 5 \sigma_{G-B}^2 = \sigma_{G}^2 + \sigma_{B}^2 = (4)^2 + (3)^2 = 25 \implies \sigma_{G-B} = \sqrt{25} = 5

Using the above z-score formula, we can standardize this distribution with x = 0 x=0 :

z G B = 0 5 5 = 1 z_{G-B} = \dfrac{0-5}{5} = -1 .

Therefore, we have P ( G B > 0 ) = P ( z > 1 ) P(G-B>0)=P(z>-1) . Using a z-score table, we have that the area to the left of a z-score of 1 -1 is approximately 0.1587 0.1587 . However, we want the area GREATER than the z-score of 1 -1 , so it would be to the right. Therefore,

P ( G B > 0 ) = P ( z > 1 ) = 1 ( 0.1587 ) = 0.8413 P(G-B>0)=P(z>-1)=1-(0.1587)=0.8413 .

Rounded to the nearest percent, the probability that a randomly selected girl in your class has a higher test score than a randomly selected boy in your class is 84 % \boxed{84\%} .

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