You have 2 fair coins with you. You do the following process with them.
You flip the f i r s t coin and note its outcome. Now, you put away the f i r s t coin.
Now, you take the s e c o n d coin and flip it again and again till you encounter a t a i l . Once you encounter it, you put away the s e c o n d coin.
Now, if the outcome of the f i r s t coin was t a i l , you stop the process. Else, you start from first step.
Find expected value of the number of times you'll flip the s e c o n d coin.
All of my problems are original .
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Let N be the number of times the first coin is tossed, and let Y j be the number of times the second coin is tossed after the j th toss of the first coin. Thus the total number of tosses of the second coin is the random variable Z = j = 1 ∑ N Y j Suppose that the probability of the first coin coming up tails is p 1 , and that the probability of the second coin coming up tails is p 2 . Then N has the geometric distribution G e o ( p 1 ) , while each of the random variables Y j have the geometric distribution G e o ( p 2 ) , and the random variables N , Y 1 , Y 2 , . . . are independent of each other.
If N = n then Z = Y 1 + Y 2 + ⋯ + Y n , and so E [ Z ∣ N = n ] = E [ j = 1 ∑ n Y j ] = j = 1 ∑ n E [ Y j ] = n p 2 − 1 for all n ≥ 1 . Thus we deduce that E [ Z ∣ N ] = p 2 − 1 N , and hence E [ Z ] = E [ E [ Z ∣ N ] ] = E [ p 2 − 1 N ] = p 2 − 1 E [ N ] = p 1 − 1 p 2 − 1 In the case p 1 = p 2 = 2 1 we obtain E [ Z ] = 4 .
Excellent solution sir. Thanku for sharing it with us.
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Let's find the expected number of times you'll flip the s e c o n d coin once you pick it up.
E 1 = ∑ (number of times it is flipped) × (probability that it’s flipped that number of times)
E 1 = 1 × ( 2 1 ) 1 + 2 × ( 2 1 ) 2 + 3 × ( 2 1 ) 3 … ∞
E 1 = 2
Let's find the expected number of times you'll flip the s e c o n d coin in total considering f i r s t coin also.
E 2 = ∑ (number of times first coin is flipped) × (probability that it’s flipped that number of times) × E 1
E 1 = 1 × ( 2 1 ) 1 × E 1 + 2 × ( 2 1 ) 2 × E 1 + 3 × ( 2 1 ) 3 × E 1 … ∞
E 2 = 2 × E 1
E 2 = 4