After breakfast this morning, Barry opened an investment account with an initial investment of . Barry expects his account to appreciate at a constant rate of per year, and at the beginning of each month he will add to his investments. Assuming Barry's assumptions of investment gains are accurate and he will never remove any funds from his account, in how many full months will Barry's account balance first exceed ?
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First of all, note that Barry's annualized gains remain constant throughout the life of his account, so his monthly gains are constant at a rate of 1 0 0 [ ( 1 . 0 7 5 ) 1 / 1 2 − 1 ] ≈ 0 . 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 % per month. We know that Barry adds $ 4 0 0 . 0 0 to his investments every month, so if we let M k denote the expected value of the account at the beginning of the k t h month of consecutive $ 4 0 0 . 0 0 investments, observe that M k + 1 = M k ⋅ 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 + $ 4 0 0 . 0 0 , M k + 2 = M k + 1 ⋅ 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 + $ 4 0 0 . 0 0 , M k + 3 = M k + 2 ⋅ 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 + $ 4 0 0 . 0 0 , and so on. We therefore obtain, upon expansion of the recursively defined values, the following formula for the expected value of the account as a function of the number of months, n , after the portfolio's current value, M k :
M k + n = 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 n ⋅ M k + 4 0 0 . 0 0 nested n-1 times. ( 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 × [ 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 × [ ⋯ × [ 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 + 1 ] + 1 ] + ⋯ ] + 1 )
So we see that the following equations hold:
M k + n = 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 n M k + 4 0 0 . 0 0 ( 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 n − 1 + 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 n − 2 + ⋯ + 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 2 + 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 + 1 )
⟹ M k + n = 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 n M k + 4 0 0 . 0 0 m = 0 ∑ n − 1 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 m = 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 n M k + 4 0 0 . 0 0 ( 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 − 1 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 n − 1 ) .
Letting k be zero, we see that M n = 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 n × 5 0 0 0 . 0 0 + 4 0 0 . 0 0 ( 0 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 1 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 n − 1 ) .
Of course, we would like to find n and not M n but it is not too difficult now to solve the equation for n and see that
n = lo g ( 0 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 ) lo g [ ( M n × 0 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 / 4 0 0 . 0 0 + 1 ) / ( 1 + 5 0 0 0 . 0 0 × 0 . 0 0 6 0 4 4 9 1 9 0 2 4 2 9 / 4 0 0 . 0 0 ) ] .
With that, we see that for M n = $ 1 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 . 0 0 , we must have n ≈ 4 4 9 . 1 2 3 months. So Barry's account balance will first exceed $ 1 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 . 0 0 after ⌈ 4 4 9 . 1 2 3 ⌉ = 4 5 0 months.