Dice games, part 2

Calculus Level 5

Let E n , p E_{n,p} be the expected value of rolling an n n -sided die p p times and choosing the greatest number shown.

The limit lim n E n , 20 E n , 30 \displaystyle\lim_{n \to \infty} \frac{E_{n,20}}{E_{n,30}} can be expressed as a b \frac{a}{b} , where a a and b b are relatively coprime positive integers. Find a + b a+b .


Related to a curiosity I discovered while writing Dice game .
Image Credit: Wikimedia Pentakisdodecahedron .


The answer is 125.

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3 solutions

Kerry Soderdahl
Jul 6, 2015

I apologize if this is unnecessarily confusing or complicated - I'm not well versed in probability theory (or calculus, for that matter). This is just the way I solved it.

There are k j k^j ways to roll only k k 's or less when rolling j j dice.

Therefore there are k j ( k 1 ) j k^{j}-(k-1)^{j} ways for k k to be the greatest roll.

The expected value of rolling j j n n -sided dice is therefore

E n , j = k = 1 n k ( k j ( k 1 ) j ) n j = n j k = 1 n [ k j + 1 k ( k 1 ) j ] E_{n,j}=\frac{\sum_{k=1}^{n}k(k^{j}-(k-1)^{j})}{n^{j}} = n^{-j} \sum_{k=1}^{n} \left[k^{j+1}-k(k-1)^{j}\right]

By the Binomial Theorem:

= n j k = 1 n [ k j + 1 k j + 1 + j k j ( j 2 ) k j 1 + ( j 3 ) k j 2 ± k ] =n^{-j}\sum_{k=1}^{n}\left[k^{j+1}-k^{j+1}+jk^{j}-{j\choose2}k^{j-1}+{j\choose3}k^{j-2}-\ldots \pm k\right]

= n j [ j k = 1 n ( k j ) ( j 2 ) k = 1 n ( k j 1 ) + ( j 3 ) k = 1 n ( k j 2 ) ± k = 1 n k ] =n^{-j}\left[j\sum_{k=1}^{n}(k^{j}) - {j\choose2}\sum_{k=1}^{n}(k^{j-1}) + {j\choose3}\sum_{k=1}^{n}(k^{j-2}) - \ldots \pm \sum_{k=1}^{n}k\right]

= n j t = 1 j ( 1 ) t + 1 ( j t ) k = 1 n k j t + 1 =n^{-j}\sum_{t=1}^{j}(-1)^{t+1} {j \choose t}\sum_{k=1}^{n}k^{j-t+1}

We are asked to find

lim n E n , 20 E n , 30 = lim n n 20 t = 1 20 ( 1 ) t + 1 ( 20 t ) k = 1 n k 21 t n 30 t = 1 30 ( 1 ) t + 1 ( 30 t ) k = 1 n k 31 t \lim_{n \to \infty} \frac{E_{n,20}}{E_{n,30}} = \lim_{n \to \infty} \frac{n^{-20}\sum_{t=1}^{20}(-1)^{t+1} {20 \choose t}\sum_{k=1}^{n}k^{21-t}}{n^{-30}\sum_{t=1}^{30}(-1)^{t+1} {30 \choose t}\sum_{k=1}^{n}k^{31-t}}

The t = 1 t=1 term of the outer sums are the only terms relevant to the limit.

= lim n n 10 20 k = 1 n k 20 30 k = 1 n k 30 = \lim_{n \to \infty} n^{10}\frac{20\sum_{k=1}^{n}k^{20}}{30\sum_{k=1}^{n}k^{30}}

I will demonstrate that q = 1 q p \sum_{q=1}^{\infty}q^p is asymptotically equivalent to lim n n p + 1 p + 1 \lim_{n \to \infty}\frac{n^{p+1}}{p+1} .

0 m k p d k = m p + 1 p + 1 \int_{0}^{m}k^{p}dk=\frac{m^{p+1}}{p+1}

= lim n q = 1 n ( m q n ) p ( m n ) = lim n q = 1 n m p q p n p ( m n ) =\lim_{n\to\infty}\sum_{q=1}^{n}\left(\frac{mq}{n}\right)^{p}\left(\frac{m}{n}\right)=\lim_{n\to\infty}\sum_{q=1}^{n}\frac{m^{p}q^{p}}{n^{p}}\left(\frac{m}{n}\right)

= lim n m p + 1 n p + 1 q = 1 n q p = m p + 1 p + 1 =\lim_{n\to\infty}\frac{m^{p+1}}{n^{p+1}}\sum_{q=1}^{n}q^{p}=\frac{m^{p+1}}{p+1}

lim n 1 n p + 1 q = 1 n q p = 1 p + 1 \lim_{n\to\infty}\frac{1}{n^{p+1}}\sum_{q=1}^{n}q^{p}=\frac{1}{p+1}

implying that q = 1 q p lim n n p + 1 p + 1 \sum_{q=1}^{\infty}q^p \sim \lim_{n \to \infty}\frac{n^{p+1}}{p+1} .

Substituting:

lim n n 10 20 k = 1 n k 20 30 k = 1 n k 30 = lim n n 10 20 n 21 21 30 n 31 31 = 20 31 30 21 = 62 63 \lim_{n \to \infty} n^{10}\frac{20\sum_{k=1}^{n}k^{20}}{30\sum_{k=1}^{n}k^{30}} = \lim_{n \to \infty} n^{10}\frac{20\frac{n^{21}}{21}}{30\frac{n^{31}}{31}} = \frac{20*31}{30*21} = \frac{62}{63}

62 + 63 = 125 62 + 63 = \boxed{125}

Alex Li
Jan 13, 2016

Same solution here I used on Dice game, except this time it actually works

For a number randomly selected between a range (If there are infinite numbers in between, for some reason it breaks down if not), the average maximum is going to be 1/2 the maximum of the range. This is common sense, as it has a equal chance of being on either side. For two picks, the average maximum would be 2/3rds. Any pick would have a equal chance of being in each of the three thirds, so it will average at the middle of the thirds. And so on, such that randomly picking a number p times would give an average max of p/p+1.

So, the top number is 20/21 and bottom is 30/31.

20*31 = 620

30*21 = 630

620/630 = 62/63

62 + 63 = 125

Lu Chee Ket
Dec 12, 2015

My scientific method appeared to me with 0.98414 and Excel gives a nearest fraction of 62 63 \frac{62}{63} to it. I checked and divided, 0.984126984126984 comes to me. At the moment I see the screen appeared with 0.98412..., I realized that my initial thought of 49207 50000 \frac{49207}{50000} is unnecessary, because 62 + 63 = 125 shall be a very likely answer wanted comparatively, in a context of relating to figures of 20 and 30.

The idea is logical and I interpreted as making a further dicing after the 20th to continue up to 30th must make a higher or equal maximum with 100% certainty. I checked my proper simulation of command for correct call for R a n d o m i z e Randomize to observe for good random numbers generated. Such positive figure of less than 1 is actually resembling such a dice described of which I thought very suitable to the question.

True! Just apply computing technique to record for two maximums for an unfixed ratio and run for a dynamic average. The dynamic average is what we can see a constant to happen in this dicing!

63 64 . \frac{63}{64}. I credited this to excellent random generator. Likeliness is crucial to my guessing.

Answer: 125 \boxed{125}

Its science may be more interesting than its mathematics!

Lu Chee Ket - 5 years, 6 months ago

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