Dice games, part 1

Alivia and Bavid are playing a game.

  • Alivia rolls two fair n -sided dice. She chooses the greater of the two numbers shown on the dice and adds 5.

  • Bavid rolls three fair n -sided dice. He chooses the greatest of the three numbers shown on the dice.

What is the least positive integer n such that the expected value of Bavid's number is greater than the expected value of Alivia's number?

Image Credit: Flickr Lo8i .


The answer is 61.

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3 solutions

James Moors
Jul 5, 2015

First, recall that for a discrete random variable, X X , we have: E [ X ] = x = 1 x P ( Y = x ) . . . . . . . . . . . ( i ) E[X] = \sum_{x=1}^{\infty} x P(Y=x) ...........(i) Also note that the dice are independent, from which: P ( m a x ( X , Y ) z ) = P ( X z ) P ( Y z ) P ( m a x ( X , Y ) = z i ) = P ( m a x ( X , Y ) z i ) P ( m a x ( X , Y ) z i 1 ) = P ( X z i ) P ( Y z i ) P ( X z i 1 ) P ( X z i 1 ) . . . . . ( i i ) P(max(X,Y)\leq z) = P(X\leq z)P(Y\leq z)\\ \Rightarrow P(max(X,Y) = z_i) = P(max(X,Y)\leq z_i) - P(max(X,Y)\leq z_{i-1})\\ = P(X\leq z_i)P(Y\leq z_i) - P(X\leq z_{i-1})P(X\leq z_{i-1}).....(ii) Now, the dice have a uniform distribution between the values of 1 1 and n n , so ( i i ) (ii) can be rewritten as: P ( m a x ( X , Y ) = z ) = z n z n z 1 n z 1 n P(max(X,Y)=z) = \frac{z}{n} \cdot \frac{z}{n} - \frac{z-1}{n} \cdot \frac{z-1}{n} So, ( i ) (i) can be rewritten to get: E [ m a x ( X , Y ) ] = z = 1 z P ( m a x ( X , Y ) = z ) = z = 1 n z ( z 2 n 2 ( z 1 ) 2 n 2 ) = 1 n 2 z = 1 n 2 z 2 z = ( n + 1 ) ( 4 n 1 ) 6 n . . . . . . ( i i i ) E[max(X,Y)] = \sum_{z=1}^{\infty} z \: P(max(X,Y) = z)\\ = \sum_{z=1}^{n} z \left(\frac{z^2}{n^2} - \frac{(z-1)^2}{n^2}\right)\\ = \frac{1}{n^2} \sum_{z=1}^{n}2z^2 - z\\ = \frac{(n+1)(4n-1)}{6n}......(iii) Bavid gets to roll a third die, and take that into account, so he gets a slightly different version of ( i i ) (ii) : P ( m a x ( U , V , W ) = z ) = z n z n z n z 1 n z 1 n z 1 n P(max(U,V, W)=z) = \frac{z}{n} \cdot \frac{z}{n} \cdot \frac{z}{n}- \frac{z-1}{n} \cdot \frac{z-1}{n}\cdot \frac{z-1}{n} Plugging that into ( i ) (i) : E [ m a x ( U , V , W ) ] = z = 1 z P ( m a x ( U , V , Y ) = z ) = z = 1 n z ( z 3 n 3 ( z 1 ) 3 n 3 ) = 1 n 3 z = 1 n 3 z 3 3 z 2 + z = ( n + 1 ) ( 3 n 1 ) 4 n . . . . . . ( i v ) E[max(U, V, W)] = \sum_{z=1}^{\infty} z \: P(max(U, V, Y) = z)\\ = \sum_{z=1}^{n} z \left(\frac{z^3}{n^3} - \frac{(z-1)^3}{n^3}\right)\\ = \frac{1}{n^3} \sum_{z=1}^{n}3z^3 - 3z^2 + z\\ = \frac{(n+1)(3n-1)}{4n}......(iv) Now we turn to Alivia and Bavid's game: E [ B a v i d ] > E [ A l i v i a ] E [ m a x ( U , V , W ) ] > E [ m a x ( X , Y ) + 5 ] E[Bavid]>E[Alivia]\\ E[max(U, V, W)] > E[max(X, Y) + 5] (using ( i i i ) (iii) and ( i v ) (iv) ) ( n + 1 ) ( 3 n 1 ) 4 n > ( n + 1 ) ( 4 n 1 ) 6 n + 5 3 ( n + 1 ) ( 3 n 1 ) 12 n > 2 ( n + 1 ) ( 4 n 1 ) + 60 n 12 n \frac{(n+1)(3n-1)}{4n} > \frac{(n+1)(4n-1)}{6n} + 5\\ \frac{3(n+1)(3n-1)}{12n} > \frac{2(n+1)(4n-1) + 60n}{12n} (since n\neq 0) 3 ( n + 1 ) ( 3 n 1 ) > 2 ( n + 1 ) ( 4 n 1 ) + 60 n 9 n 2 + 6 n 3 > 8 n 2 + 6 n 2 + 60 n n 2 60 n 1 > 0 3(n+1)(3n-1) > 2(n+1)(4n-1) + 60n\\ 9n^2+6n-3 > 8n^2 + 6n - 2 + 60n\\ n^2 - 60n - 1 > 0 (quadratic equation and constraint of n N n \in \mathbb{N} yields) n > 60 + 3600 + 4 2 = 30 + 901 n = 61 n>\frac{60 + \sqrt{3600+4}}{2} = 30 + \sqrt{901}\\ \therefore \boxed{n = 61} (Good luck getting 61 61 -sided dice, though)

Alex Li
Jul 7, 2015

X numbers randomly picked will always split the max and minimum evenly (picking a random number between 0-1 will average .5, the max of 2 numbers will average .333, the max of 3 .25, etc.)

Based on this, Alivia's average should be

x*2/3+5 (where x is the number of sides on the die)

And Bavid's average should be

x*3/4

Now, simply solve for x

(x * 2/3+5)-x * 3/4=0

60=x

In other words, when the die is 60-sided, they will both have the same average. However, Bavid needs to have a higher average, so go up one more to |61|

I don't think this is quite right. Bavid's expected value when n = 60 n=60 should be 10909 240 \frac{10909}{240} , and Alivia's should be 16379 360 \frac{16379}{360} (difference of 1 720 \frac{1}{720} .) Their expected values should be equal when n = 30 + 901 n=30+\sqrt{901} .

Perhaps you can explain/prove how your method of approximation is sufficiently accurate? In fact, the error term tends to 0 as n n\to\infty . If you haven't seen it already, I've posted a part II to this problem that concerns this idea.

Kerry Soderdahl - 5 years, 6 months ago

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First I'd like to say that this formula is actually wrong I was assuming all values between 0 and X instead of all values between 1 and X. It should be

1 + (x-1)2/3 + 5 and 1 + (x-1)3/4

6 + (x-1) 2/3 = 1 + (x-1) 3/4

x = 61

Which gives the wrong result. (62) As for where the error appears, I'm not sure. I'm almost positive my formula holds up for picking random numbers between 2 numbers, so the difference here could be that these numbers aren't inclusive of all numbers. You can't roll a 7/4ths on a die. Perhaps it's me not calculating chances of tying correctly, and my result is for greater than or equal to . I'm not really smart enough to understand the solution above this one, so someone else help me out maybe?

Alex Li - 5 years, 5 months ago
Nicola Mignoni
Aug 14, 2018

Let's consider a n n -sided dice thrown p p times. Let be x = ( x 1 , x 2 , . . . , x p ) \overline{x}=(x_1,x_2,...,x_p) , 1 x i n 1\leq x_i\leq n , 1 i p 1\leq i \leq p the vector containing the result of each roll. Let be M m M_m the set of all x \overline{x} such that max x = m \max{ \overline{x}}=m .

Now, let's find M m |M_m| . For a x \overline{x} string long p p , you can place the maximum m m one time in ( p 1 ) \displaystyle \binom{p}{1} ways. Than, fill the remaining places with the m 1 m-1 number smaller than m m in ( m 1 ) p 1 (m-1)^{p-1} ways. Or, you can place m m two times in ( p 2 ) \displaystyle \binom{p}{2} ways, than fill the remaining spaces with the m 1 m-1 smaller numbers in ( m 1 ) p 2 (m-1)^{p-2} ways. Hence M m |M_m| is

M m = ( p 1 ) ( m 1 ) p 1 + ( p 2 ) ( m 1 ) p 2 + . . . + ( p p ) = h = 1 p ( p h ) ( m 1 ) p h \displaystyle |M_m|=\binom{p}{1}(m-1)^{p-1}+\binom{p}{2}(m-1)^{p-2}+...+\binom{p}{p}=\sum_{h=1}^{p} \binom{p}{h}(m-1)^{p-h} .

So, we can write P ( max x = m ) = M m n p \displaystyle \mathbb{P}(\max{\overline{x}=m})=\frac{|M_m|}{n^p} , where n p n^p is the number of all possible x \overline{x} .

For the first player, we have that p = 2 p=2 . Let's define the random variable A = max ( x 1 , x 2 , x 3 ) + 5 = m + 5 A=\max(x_1,x_2,x_3)+5=m+5 , 6 A n + 5 6\leq A\leq n+5 so that m = A 5 m=A-5 . So, we find that

P ( A ) = 1 n 2 h = 1 2 ( 2 h ) ( A 6 ) 2 h = 1 n 2 ( ( 2 1 ) ( A 6 ) + ( 2 2 ) ) = 2 A 11 n 2 \displaystyle \mathbb{P}(A)=\frac{1}{n^2}\sum_{h=1}^{2} \binom{2}{h}(A-6)^{2-h}=\frac{1}{n^2} \bigg(\binom{2}{1}(A-6)+\binom{2}{2}\bigg)=\frac{2A-11}{n^2} .

So,

E [ A ] = A = 6 n + 5 2 A 11 n 2 A = 1 6 ( 4 n 1 n + 33 ) \displaystyle \mathbb{E}[A]=\sum_{A=6}^{n+5} \frac{2A-11}{n^2}A=\frac{1}{6} \bigg(4n-\frac{1}{n}+33\bigg)

For the second player, we have that p = 3 p=3 . Let's define the random variable B = max ( x 1 , x 2 ) B=\max(x_1,x_2) , 1 B n 1\leq B \leq n . Again,

P ( B ) = 1 n 3 h = 1 3 ( 3 h ) ( B 1 ) 3 h = 3 ( B 1 ) 2 + 3 ( B 1 ) + 1 n 3 \displaystyle \mathbb{P}(B)=\frac{1}{n^3}\sum_{h=1}^{3} \binom{3}{h}(B-1)^{3-h}=\frac{3(B-1)^2+3(B-1)+1}{n^3}

So

E [ B ] = B = 1 n 3 ( B 1 ) 2 + 3 ( B 1 ) + 1 n 3 B = ( n + 1 ) ( 3 n 1 ) 4 n \displaystyle \mathbb{E}[B]=\sum_{B=1}^{n} \frac{3(B-1)^2+3(B-1)+1}{n^3}B=\frac{(n+1)(3n-1)}{4n}

Eventually

E [ B ] > E [ A ] ( n + 1 ) ( 3 n 1 ) 4 n > 1 6 ( 4 n 1 n + 33 ) n > 30 + 901 60.017 n = 61 \displaystyle \mathbb{E}[B]>\mathbb{E}[A]\ \hspace{5pt} \Longrightarrow \hspace{5pt} \frac{(n+1)(3n-1)}{4n}>\frac{1}{6} \bigg(4n-\frac{1}{n}+33\bigg) \hspace{5pt} \Longrightarrow \hspace{5pt} n>30+\sqrt{901}\approx 60.017 \hspace{5pt} \Longrightarrow \hspace{5pt} n=\boxed{61}

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