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Two players A A and B B throw two fair dice alternating. A A wins if he gets 6 points in a throw before B B gets 7, and B B wins if she gets 7 points before A A gets 6. A A throws first. What are his chances of winning? (Attributed to Christiaan Huygens)

If A A wins with probability p = a b p=\dfrac{a}{b} , where a a and b b are coprime, find a + b a+b .


The answer is 91.

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1 solution

Gabriel Chacón
Feb 12, 2019

The probability of getting 6 points when we throw two dice is 5 36 \frac{5}{36} . Getting 7 points is slightly more probable: 6 36 \frac{6}{36} .

A throws first. For A A to win, he must get either 6 points in the first turn, or in the third after B B loses the second, or in the fifth after B B loses the fourth... But notice that every odd turn is like starting the game over. This allows us to skip the infinite sum and write a simple equation for p p :

p = 5 36 + ( 1 5 36 ) ( 1 6 36 ) p p = 5 36 + 31 36 30 36 p p=\frac{5}{36}+(1-\frac{5}{36})\cdot(1-\frac{6}{36})\cdot p \implies p=\frac{5}{36}+\frac{31}{36}\cdot\frac{30}{36}\cdot p

Solving for p p we get p = 30 61 \boxed{p=\dfrac{30}{61}}

The odds are slightly against player A A .

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