Two players and throw two fair dice alternating. wins if he gets 6 points in a throw before gets 7, and wins if she gets 7 points before gets 6. throws first. What are his chances of winning? (Attributed to Christiaan Huygens)
If wins with probability , where and are coprime, find .
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The probability of getting 6 points when we throw two dice is 3 6 5 . Getting 7 points is slightly more probable: 3 6 6 .
A throws first. For A to win, he must get either 6 points in the first turn, or in the third after B loses the second, or in the fifth after B loses the fourth... But notice that every odd turn is like starting the game over. This allows us to skip the infinite sum and write a simple equation for p :
p = 3 6 5 + ( 1 − 3 6 5 ) ⋅ ( 1 − 3 6 6 ) ⋅ p ⟹ p = 3 6 5 + 3 6 3 1 ⋅ 3 6 3 0 ⋅ p
Solving for p we get p = 6 1 3 0
The odds are slightly against player A .