Do Not Invite Sumo Wrestlers To Your Playground

7 Sumo Wrestlers are eager to hop onto the merry-go-round. However, if they were to be contained within the same half of the merry-go-round, then their combined weight would cause the merry-go-round to topple.

If all 7 Sumo Wrestlers were to hop onto the merry-go-round at a random point along the circumference of the merry-go-round, what is the probability (to 3 decimal places) that the merry-go-round will topple?


The answer is 0.109.

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4 solutions

William Zhang
Apr 5, 2014

Imagine that the merry-go-round starts empty. Then give the Sumo wrestlers some names : Sumo wrestler #1, #2, #3, ... #7.

WLOG, place Sumo #1 somewhere on the circle. Then, draw counter-clockwise along the edge of the circle starting at the point Sumo #1 is on such that a semi-circular arc is on. Here, we are assuming that Sumo #1 is at the clockwise-most point on the semi-circle that the Sumo's are in. As this is not necessarily true, we will multiply the answer derived from this assumption by 7.

After we have determined the location of Sumo #1 and the semi-circle, we now have to find the probability the other 6 Sumo's are in the semi-circle.

(1/2)^6=1/64

7*(1/64)=0.109375 which is approximately 0.109

Here's a one-variable solution involving integration:

Imagine that instead of a circle, we have a line segment from 0 to 1, which wraps around. We pick two sumos to be the start and end points respectively (no. of ways = 7P2) Let x be the distance between these two "bounding" sumos. Then, x will range between 0 and 0.5, in order for toppling to happen.

Now, each of the other 5 sumos have to stand within the bounding sumos, and the independent probability of this happening for each sumo is simply x.

Thus, we have P(topple) = Integrate(7P2 * x^5) from 0 to 0.5 = 0.109375.

Ian Soon - 7 years, 2 months ago

i really like this solution!!! however, i feel something is wrong because you said "as this is not necessarily true, we will multiply the answer derived from this assumption by 7". by doing this, aren't you assuming that one of the 7 sumo wrestlers have to be at the edge of the semicircle? i mean, it's possible to have a semicircle with 7 sumo wrestlers without having anyone on the edge right? can you tell me what's wrong with my logic or if i'm missing the point you're trying to get across? thanks!!!

Willia Chang - 4 years, 11 months ago

I think the answer must be 1/32. The reason is; until the 3rd sumo jumps anything can happen. If you put 2 sumo, there is always going to be an arc smaller than 180 degrees (at the worst case they will be complete opposite). If the 3rd and remaining sumos jumps to the smaller side of the arc then it will topple.

M H - 4 years, 1 month ago

Isn't this more correct? You choose #1 and place it anywhere in the circle, thus probability equals 1. For #2 probability is the same, since you can put him anywhere in the circle and it will still be within the semi-circle. For #3, #4, #5, #6 and #7, the probability is always 1/2. It then follows: P = 7(1x1x1/32) = 0.21875. What do you think about this?

Rok Vogrinčič - 3 years, 2 months ago

A problem with the problem, what if two Sumo's are exactly opposite each other and the others are in the same semi circle? Then each of the two's that are opposite probably is not .5. So what is the probability of any 2 out of 7 being exactly opposite each other? The circle is non-discrete unlike a coin being flip having only two values unless it lands on its edge.

Tom O'Brien - 2 years, 4 months ago

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It is impossible that two points are exactly opposite of each other because each point follow a continuous distribution along the circumference of the circle. It has zero probability of happening.

Arman Özcan - 11 months, 3 weeks ago
Aaaaa Bbbbb
Apr 16, 2014

R e s u l t = n ( 1 2 ) n 1 = 0.109375 Result = n (\frac{1}{2})^{n-1} = \boxed{0.109375}

We can also derive this formula by integrating n n variables, too. Check the n n Sumos counter-clockwise, if they stand on the same semi-circle, then there are n ! n! ways for them to stand. In each way, for the most right person, the angle corresponding to his position (denoted as θ 1 \theta_{1} ) ranges from 0 to 2 π \pi . the angle of the second person, θ 2 \theta_{2} ranges from θ 1 \theta_{1} to θ 1 + π \theta_{1}+\pi . With the same logic, the i t h i^{th} angle ranges from θ i 1 \theta_{i-1} to θ 1 + π \theta_{1}+\pi . Since each angle θ i \theta_{i} can vary in a interval with width 2 π 2\pi . The "total area" is ( 2 π ) n (2\pi)^{n} and the probability that the n n people stand on the same semi-circle is n ! × 0 2 π d θ 1 θ 1 θ 2 θ n θ 1 + π d θ 1 d θ 2 d θ n ( 2 π ) n n!\times \frac{\int_{0}^{2\pi}d\theta_{1}\int_{\theta_{1}\le \theta_{2}\le \cdots \theta_{n}\le \theta_{1}+\pi}d\theta_{1}d\theta_{2}\cdots d\theta_{n}}{(2\pi)^{n}} .

Let's calculate θ n 1 θ 1 + π d θ n \int_{\theta_{n-1}}^{\theta_{1}+\pi}d\theta_{n} first. It equals θ 1 + π θ n 1 \theta_{1}+\pi-\theta_{n-1} . Then we integrate θ n 2 θ 1 + π ( θ 1 + π θ n 1 ) d θ n 1 \int_{\theta_{n-2}}^{\theta_{1}+\pi}(\theta_{1}+\pi-\theta_{n-1})d\theta_{n-1} , which equals 1 2 ( θ 1 + π θ n 2 ) 2 \frac{1}{2}(\theta_{1}+\pi-\theta_{n-2})^{2} . We can find that the integral is not difficult and has an obvious pattern. The final result of the numerator is 1 ( n 1 ) ! π n 1 × 2 π \frac{1}{(n-1)!}\pi^{n-1}\times 2\pi . So the total probability equals n ! × 1 ( n 1 ) ! π n 1 × 2 π ( 2 π ) n = n 2 n 1 \frac{n!\times \frac{1}{(n-1)!}\pi^{n-1}\times 2\pi}{(2\pi)^{n}} = \frac{n}{2^{n-1}}

zhizhong lin - 1 year ago
Calvin Lin Staff
Apr 1, 2014

Hint: Instead of trying to solve the 7-variable integration probability, use conditional probability instead.

Consider 7 points, paired with their antipodal (symmetric about the center) points. If we had to pick one point out of each of these pairs, what is the probability that they will lie within the same half?

Why does this work?

It works because this problem is equivalent to the alternate question: Given 7 arbitrary points on a circle, what is the probability that they all fall in one half of a circle OR synonymously, what is the probability that the arc formed by these points subtends an angle <= 180 degrees (minor arc).

Amruta Vasudevan - 7 years, 2 months ago

Additionally, as it was not explicit in my previous post, between a pair of diametrically opposite points, if one of them does not fall within the pertinent half of the circle, the other one necessarily must, hence this will always work..

Amruta Vasudevan - 7 years, 2 months ago

Calvin, with this antipodal method, how do you determine the probability that the points lie on the same half?

Hungry Cap - 7 years, 2 months ago

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Let the points be paired up as a i , b i a_i, b_i . If we only could pick from these 14 points, then there are 2 7 2^7 possible sets, of which exactly. 14 14 sets would all lie within the same half.

Calvin Lin Staff - 7 years, 2 months ago

Even easier solution is to note that there are 7 ways to choose which sumo wrestler is to be put on the semicircle arc and there are 2^6 ways of choosing which arc to put him on so P = 7/2^6= 0.109

Advaith Kumar - 1 year ago

For geometry/combinatorics problems, uniform distribution is like a comprehensible representation of infinite, usually geometric probability spaces.

Finn Hulse - 7 years, 2 months ago
George Foot
May 9, 2017

Let P(n) be the proposition that all Sumo Wrestlers other than Sumo Wrestler n lie within a clockwise semicircular arc of Sumo Wrestler n.

P(n) for any n states by definition that all the Sumo Wrestlers lie within a semicircular arc. So P(n) for any n is sufficient to topple the merry-go-round.

In any case that all the Sumo Wrestlers lie within an arbitrary semicircular arc, P(n) is true for the furthest counter-clockwise around the chosen arc. So P(n) for some n is necessary to topple the merry-go-round.

Finally, if P(n) is true for some n, then P(m) cannot be true for any m not equal to n, as Sumo Wrestler n would lie counter-clockwise of Sumo Wrestler m, not clockwise. So P(n) are disjoint .

Consequently the probability that the merry-go-round topples is the summed probability of each P(n) occuring, i.e. 7 1 2 6 7 * \frac{1}{2^6} = 7 64 \frac{7}{64}

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