Do Randoms Cancel Out?

What is the probability that a Random Integer between a Random Integer between 1 and 10 and a random integer between 1 and 10 is equal to a Random integer between 1 and 10?

In a different notation, what is the probability that the below statement is true?

  • All "betweens" are inclusive.

  • Random means each integer has an equal chance of being selected.


The answer is 0.1.

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2 solutions

Arjen Vreugdenhil
Mar 17, 2017

Let A A be a stochastic variables taking values on the set { 1 , , 10 } \{1,\dots,10\} .

The definition of A A as "pick random between (pick random between 1 and 10) and (pick random between 1 and 10)" is awkward, but as we see it doesn't matter!

Let X u ( 1 , , 10 ) X \sim u(1,\dots,10) be the uniform distribution on the same set, independent of A A . Now the probability asked for is P ( X = A ) = n = 1 10 P ( X = n A = n ) = n = 1 10 P ( X = n ) P ( A = n ) = n = 1 10 1 10 P ( A = n ) = 1 10 n = 1 10 P ( A = n ) = 1 10 1 = 1 10 . \mathbb P(X = A) = \sum_{n=1}^{10} \mathbb P(X = n \wedge A = n) \\ = \sum_{n=1}^{10} \mathbb P(X = n) \mathbb P(A = n) \\ = \sum_{n=1}^{10} \dfrac 1{10} \mathbb P(A = n) \\ = \dfrac 1{10} \sum_{n=1}^{10} \mathbb P(A = n) \\ = \dfrac 1{10} \cdot 1 = \boxed{\dfrac 1{10}}. Here we used respectively the independence of A A and X X , and the uniformity of X X .

Oliver Papillo
Jan 31, 2017

While this problem may appear quite fiendish, it becomes quite simple with a key insight - it does not matter what the integer before the equals sign is!

While the probability of the integer some numbers is different to the probability of the integer being other numbers, this does not matter. As the first integer must be between 1 1 and 10 10 , the probability that the second integer is equal to it is 1 10 \frac{1}{10} .

I'm not completely sure this is rigourous. Could someone could confirm/deny that it is?

You have essentially the correct idea, but could phrase it in a much clearer way.

Think about the probability equation you're writing up, and why we can "take out the 1/10".

Calvin Lin Staff - 4 years, 4 months ago

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