Drawing a Ball!

A bag contains 3 red and 7 black balls. Two balls are selected at random one-by-one without replacement. If the second selected ball happens to be red, what is the probability that the first ball selected is also red?

The above answer in the form of a b \dfrac{a}{b} , where a a and b b are co-prime positive integers. Submit your answer as a + b a + b


The answer is 11.

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2 solutions

Relevant wiki: Bayes' Theorem and Conditional Probability

E 1 = First ball drawn is red E 2 = First Ball drawn is black A = Second Ball drawn is red P ( E 1 ) = 3 10 , P ( E 2 ) = 7 10 P ( A / E 1 ) = 2 9 , P ( A / E 2 ) = 3 9 \large \displaystyle E_1 = \text{First ball drawn is red}\\ \large \displaystyle E_2 = \text{First Ball drawn is black}\\ \large \displaystyle A = \text{Second Ball drawn is red}\\ \large \displaystyle \therefore P(E_1) = \frac{3}{10}, \, P(E_2) = \frac{7}{10}\\ \large \displaystyle P(A/E_1) = \frac{2}{9}, \, P(A/E_2) = \frac{3}{9}

P ( E 1 / A ) = P ( E 1 ) × P ( A / E 1 ) P ( E 1 ) × P ( A / E 1 ) + P ( E 2 ) × P ( A / E 2 ) = 3 10 × 2 9 3 10 × 2 9 + 7 10 × 3 9 = 6 6 + 21 = 6 27 = 2 9 a b = 2 9 a + b = 2 + 9 = 11 \large \displaystyle \implies P(E_1/A) = \frac{P(E_1) \times P(A/E_1)}{P(E_1) \times P(A/E_1) + P(E_2) \times P(A/E_2)}\\ \large \displaystyle = \frac{\frac{3}{10} \times \frac{2}{9}}{\frac{3}{10} \times \frac{2}{9} + \frac{7}{10} \times \frac{3}{9}} = \frac{6}{6+21} = \frac{6}{27} = \color{#3D99F6}{\frac{2}{9}}\\ \large \displaystyle \therefore \frac{a}{b} = \frac{2}{9}\\ \large \displaystyle \implies \color{#D61F06}{a} + \color{#20A900}{b} = \color{#D61F06}{2} + \color{#20A900}{9} = \color{#BA33D6}{\boxed{11}}

Vikram Karki
May 3, 2020

I did it this way

If the second ball is red first can be red or black.

i.e., (RR,RB) these are the events that may happen.

And we can even choose different red and black balls as we have 3 red and 7 black balls.

Now, total no. of combinations for RR = 3 * 2 = 6 {combination : no. of choices in first position * no. of choices in second position}

And total no. of combination for BR = 7 * 3 = 21

Total no. of combinations are = 21 + 6 = 27

Probability of First ball red = {RR}/{RR + BR} = 6/27 = 2/9 ==> a = 2 and b = 9

a + b = 11

Is this way of doing this question valid (OK).

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