A bag contains 3 red and 7 black balls. Two balls are selected at random one-by-one without replacement. If the second selected ball happens to be red, what is the probability that the first ball selected is also red?
The above answer in the form of , where and are co-prime positive integers. Submit your answer as
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Relevant wiki: Bayes' Theorem and Conditional Probability
E 1 = First ball drawn is red E 2 = First Ball drawn is black A = Second Ball drawn is red ∴ P ( E 1 ) = 1 0 3 , P ( E 2 ) = 1 0 7 P ( A / E 1 ) = 9 2 , P ( A / E 2 ) = 9 3
⟹ P ( E 1 / A ) = P ( E 1 ) × P ( A / E 1 ) + P ( E 2 ) × P ( A / E 2 ) P ( E 1 ) × P ( A / E 1 ) = 1 0 3 × 9 2 + 1 0 7 × 9 3 1 0 3 × 9 2 = 6 + 2 1 6 = 2 7 6 = 9 2 ∴ b a = 9 2 ⟹ a + b = 2 + 9 = 1 1