Drawing balls from a box

Sam has a box with 2 2 balls, 1 1 white and 1 1 black. Every time, he draws a ball randomly, records it, and puts it back to the box. What is the expected number of times that Sam has to draw until he drew 10 10 black balls continuously?

Extension: What is the expected number of times that Sam has to draw until he drew n n black balls continuously?


The answer is 2046.

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1 solution

Mark Hennings
Mar 2, 2020

Given n N n \in \mathbb{N} , let E j E_j (for 0 j N 0 \le j \le N ) be the number of additional draws that need to be taken to obtain a consecutive run of N N black balls, given that the current "streak" is j j black balls long. Then E N = 0 E_N=0 and E j = 1 2 ( 1 + E j + 1 ) + 1 2 ( 1 + E 0 ) = 1 + 1 2 E 0 + 1 2 E j + 1 E j 2 j = 1 + 1 2 E 0 2 j + E j + 1 2 j + 1 E j 2 j E j + 1 2 j + 1 = 1 + 1 2 E 0 2 j \begin{aligned} E_j & = \; \tfrac12(1 + E_{j+1}) + \tfrac12(1+E_0) \; = \; 1 + \tfrac12E_0 + \tfrac12E_{j+1} \\ \frac{E_j}{2^j} & = \; \frac{1 + \frac12E_0}{2^j} + \frac{E_{j+1}}{2^{j+1}} \\ \frac{E_j}{2^j} - \frac{E_{j+1}}{2^{j+1}} & = \; \frac{1 + \frac12E_0}{2^j} \end{aligned} for 0 j N 1 0 \le j \le N-1 , so that E 0 = E 0 E N 2 N = j = 0 N 1 1 + 1 2 E 0 2 j = ( 2 + E 0 ) ( 1 2 N ) E_0 \; = \; E_0 - \frac{E_N}{2^N} \; = \; \sum_{j=0}^{N-1} \frac{1 + \frac12E_0}{2^j} \; = \; (2 + E_0)(1 - 2^{-N}) and hence the desired expected value is E 0 = 2 ( 2 N 1 ) E_0 \; = \; 2(2^N-1) When N = 10 N=10 the answer is therefore 2046 \boxed{2046} .

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