Drawing balls without replacement

A bag contains balls numbered with integers from 1 1 to 7 7 (inclusive). Two balls are drawn from the bag without replacement, having values x , y . x,y. The expected value of x y xy can be expressed as a b \frac{a}{b} where a a and b b are coprime positive integers. What is the value of a + b ? a + b?


The answer is 49.

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6 solutions

Michael Tang
Sep 1, 2013

Since every product is equally likely, the expected value of x y xy is the average of all possible products. Also, let's assume that the order of x x and y y matters. We compute the sum of the products by strategically over-counting and then subtracting.

First, we compute the sum of the products, assuming that x x and y y can be equal. Then notice the expression ( 1 + 2 + + 7 ) ( 1 + 2 + + 7 ) , (1+2+\ldots+7)(1+2+\ldots+7), when expanded, includes every single product. Therefore, the sum of these products is ( 1 + 2 + + 7 ) ( 1 + 2 + + 7 ) = 28 × 28 = 784. (1+2+\ldots+7)(1+2+\ldots+7) = 28 \times 28 = 784.

Then, we subtract the products in which x x and y y are equal. These products have sum 1 2 + 2 2 + + 7 2 = 140 , 1^2 + 2^2 + \ldots + 7^2 = 140, so subtracting gives 784 140 = 644 784 - 140 = 644 as the final total.

There are 7 × 6 = 42 7 \times 6 = 42 ways to choose x x and y . y. Therefore, the average of the products is 644 42 = 46 3 . \dfrac{644}{42} = \dfrac{46}{3}. The answer is 46 + 3 = 49 . 46 + 3 = \boxed{49}.

What he means is that for each distinct pairing of two integers. Even though some pairs of distinct integers will yield the same product, each one of those pairs have an equally likely chance of being picked - 1 21 \frac{1}{21} if order doesn't matter, or 1 42 \frac{1}{42} if order does matter. However, if you choose to count with/without regard to order, you have to adjust your count for that.

David Wu - 7 years, 9 months ago

Nice!

Tanishq Aggarwal - 7 years, 9 months ago

Good job! I did it the same way :)

Sarah Wang - 7 years, 9 months ago

How can you say that every product is equally likely?? Consider this-; you can get 6 in 2 ways 1 6 and 2 3 whereas you can get 5 in only 1 way!!

Divyaanand Sinha - 7 years, 9 months ago

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That was bad phrasing, sorry about that. I meant that every combination of two balls is equally likely. For example, 2-5 and 3-1 are equally likely to occur.

Michael Tang - 7 years, 9 months ago
Andrew Edwards
Sep 2, 2013

The sum of all possible values of x y xy is equal to x = 1 7 x [ y = 1 7 y x ] = x = 1 7 x [ 7 × 8 2 x ] = x = 1 7 28 x x 2 = 2 8 2 7 × 8 × 15 6 = 644 \begin{aligned}\sum_{x=1}^7 x\biggr[ \sum_{y=1}^7 y - x \biggr] &= \sum_{x=1}^7 x\biggr[\frac{7\times 8}{2} - x \biggr] \\ &= \sum_{x=1}^7 28x - x^2 \\ &= 28^2 - \dfrac{7\times 8\times 15}{6} \\ &= 644\end{aligned} Each outcome has probability equal to 1 7 × 6 = 1 42 \dfrac{1}{7\times 6} = \dfrac{1}{42} . Therefore, the expected value is 644 42 = 46 3 = a b \dfrac{644}{42} = \dfrac{46}{3} = \dfrac{a}{b} , hence a + b = 49 a + b = \boxed{49}

Ooh, I never figured out how to make brackets big like that. Could you show me how?

Tanishq Aggarwal - 7 years, 9 months ago

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Apart from manually setting the size (which is considered a crude use of the fine Latex rendering system), you can use \left, \right to let Latex take care of it for you. For example,

\left( \sum {x=1}^7 x \right) \left[ \sum {y=1}^7 \left( y - x\right) \right]

will appear as

( x = 1 7 x ) [ y = 1 7 ( y x ) ] \left( \sum_{x=1}^7 x \right) \left[ \sum_{y=1}^7 \left( y - x\right) \right]

Calvin Lin Staff - 7 years, 9 months ago
Tanishq Aggarwal
Sep 2, 2013

The sample space of possible choices is listed below. The first number in each ordered pair represents the first ball chosen and likewise for the second ball. ( 1 , 2 ) ( 2 , 1 ) ( 3 , 1 ) ( 4 , 1 ) ( 5 , 1 ) ( 6 , 1 ) ( 7 , 1 ) ( 1 , 3 ) ( 2 , 3 ) ( 3 , 2 ) ( 4 , 2 ) ( 5 , 2 ) ( 6 , 2 ) ( 7 , 2 ) ( 1 , 4 ) ( 2 , 4 ) ( 3 , 4 ) ( 4 , 3 ) ( 5 , 3 ) ( 6 , 3 ) ( 7 , 3 ) ( 1 , 5 ) ( 2 , 5 ) ( 3 , 5 ) ( 4 , 5 ) ( 5 , 4 ) ( 6 , 4 ) ( 7 , 4 ) ( 1 , 6 ) ( 2 , 6 ) ( 3 , 6 ) ( 4 , 6 ) ( 5 , 6 ) ( 6 , 5 ) ( 7 , 5 ) ( 1 , 7 ) ( 2 , 7 ) ( 3 , 7 ) ( 4 , 7 ) ( 5 , 7 ) ( 6 , 7 ) ( 7 , 6 ) \begin{matrix} (1,2)&(2,1)&(3,1)&(4,1)&(5,1)&(6,1)&(7,1) \\ (1,3)&(2,3)&(3,2)&(4,2)&(5,2)&(6,2)&(7,2) \\ (1,4)&(2,4)&(3,4)&(4,3)&(5,3)&(6,3)&(7,3) \\ (1,5)&(2,5)&(3,5)&(4,5)&(5,4)&(6,4)&(7,4) \\ (1,6)&(2,6)&(3,6)&(4,6)&(5,6)&(6,5)&(7,5) \\ (1,7)&(2,7)&(3,7)&(4,7)&(5,7)&(6,7)&(7,6) \\ \end{matrix} Each of these pairs has probability 1 42 \frac{1}{42} of occurence. We are trying to find the sum of the products of the numbers in each pair, so that dividing this sum by 42 results in the desired probability. Rather than computing all of these products and then finding their sum, we can see that there exists symmetry in the pairs; the sum of the products of the numbers in the pairs of the n th n^\text{th} column in the above sample space can be represented as 1 n + 2 n + 3 n . . + 7 n n 2 = n ( 1 + 2 + 3... + 7 n ) = n ( 28 n ) 1n+2n+3n..+7n-n^2=n(1+2+3...+7-n)=n(28-n) . Our sum simplifies to n = 1 7 n ( 28 n ) \displaystyle \sum_{n=1}^7 n(28-n) . n = 1 7 n ( 28 n ) = n = 1 7 28 n n 2 = n = 1 7 28 n n = 1 7 n 2 = 28 n = 1 7 n n = 1 7 n 2 = 28 7 8 2 7 8 15 6 = 644 \begin{aligned} \sum_{n=1}^7 {n(28-n)}= \sum_{n=1}^7 {28n-n^2} \\ = \sum_{n=1}^7 28n- \sum_{n=1}^7 n^2 \\ = 28 \sum_{n=1}^7 n- \sum_{n=1}^7 n^2 \\ = 28\frac{7 \cdot 8}{2}- \frac{7 \cdot 8 \cdot 15}{6} \\ =644 \end{aligned} where the penultimate step is a result of using the sums of powers formulas (proven here in several ways).

The rest of the computation is trivial. 644 42 = 46 3 \frac{644}{42}=\frac{46}{3} , and the sum of the numerator and the denominator is 49 \boxed{49} .

Lucid explanation.

Vicky Bro - 7 years, 9 months ago

Oops. A small error. I wrote 2 instead of 6 in the penultimate line.

Tanishq Aggarwal - 7 years, 9 months ago

Note: You can shorter you work time if you didn't worry about order. See my solution.

Ahaan Rungta - 7 years, 9 months ago

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It depends on what you mean by "the short way". I would say that this solution easily leads to a general formula for n n balls, while yours (currently) does not.

The first half is long, but helps to provide additional details to thinking about the problem.

Calvin Lin Staff - 7 years, 9 months ago
Jan J.
Sep 3, 2013

Note that 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 = 7 4 = 28 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 = 7 \cdot 4 = 28 , Also there are 6 7 = 42 6 \cdot 7 = 42 possible draws. If we draw ball numbered a a , then ( 28 a ) a (28 - a) \cdot a is the sum of all possible values of x y xy . Hence $$\frac{27 \cdot 1 + 26 \cdot 2 + 25 \cdot 3 + 24 \cdot 4 + 23 \cdot 5 + 22 \cdot 6 + 21 \cdot 7}{42} = \frac{46}{3}$$ Hence $$a + b = 46 + 3 = \boxed{49}$$

Oliver Welsh
Sep 2, 2013

First, we calculate the total of all possible values of x y x \cdot y . This can be written as:

x = 1 7 y = 1 7 x y = 784 \sum_{x=1}^{7} \sum_{y=1}^{7} x \cdot y = 784

As the balls are drawn out without replacement, this means that the two integers are distinct. Therefore, we must subtract:

x = 1 7 x 2 = 140 \sum_{x = 1}^7 x^2 = 140

So the sum of all the possible values of x y x \cdot y is 784 140 = 644 784 - 140 = 644 . There are 7 2 7 = 42 7^2 - 7 = 42 possible values of x y x \cdot y , so to calculate the expected value, we do:

644 42 = 46 3 \frac{644}{42} = \frac{46}{3}

So the final answer is 46 + 3 = 49 46 + 3 = \fbox{49}

Ahaan Rungta
Sep 3, 2013

There are ( 7 2 ) = 21 \dbinom {7}{2} = 21 possibilities, but they are not necessarily all distinct. But each pair has probability 1 21 \dfrac {1}{21} . It doesn't matter whether they are distinct. We will not be overcounting or undercounting if we count each pair once. For example, 3 4 3 \cdot 4 has probability 1 21 \dfrac {1}{21} and 2 6 2 \cdot 6 has probability 1 21 \dfrac {1}{21} . The total probability is the sum of all the products (with repeats) divided by the total number of pairs, which is 1 ( 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 ) + 2 ( 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 ) + + 6 7 21 = 322 21 = 46 3 49 . \begin{aligned} & \dfrac {1 \cdot (2+3+4+5+6+7) + 2 \cdot (3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7) + \cdots + 6 \cdot 7}{21}\\ = & \dfrac {322}{21} \\ = & \dfrac {46}{3} \implies \boxed {49}. \end{aligned}

I seem to be the only one going out of the screen. Sorry! I also seem to be the only one doing it the short way -- order doesn't matter. Could a Challenge Master please edit my last step so that it fits, please? [Yes, 2 pleases.]

Edit: I also realized that one can scroll to the right to see the solution, so it's not that bad.

Ahaan Rungta - 7 years, 9 months ago

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You are going out of the screen because your latex equation is too long. I moved the equation to the next line, but it doesn't completely resolve the issue.

Calvin Lin Staff - 7 years, 9 months ago

This is an interesting approach. Basically your first equation line is i = 1 7 ( i ) ( 28 i ( i + 1 ) 2 ) 21 \frac{\displaystyle \sum_{i=1}^7 (i)\left( 28-\dfrac{i(i+1)}{2}\right)}{21} , which can be manipulated easily to achieve 322 21 \dfrac{322}{21} rather than computation. This would lead to a general formula in your case, like Mr. Lin was talking about on my solution.

Tanishq Aggarwal - 7 years, 9 months ago

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