Drunken Secretary

A secretary must send 4 emails to person A, B, C, and D.

However on a given day, suppose this incompetent secretary sends those 4 emails in a completely randomly order, let P \mathcal{P} denote the probability of each person received the wrong email.

What is the value of 24 P 24 \mathcal{P} ?

Details and Assumptions

  • Each person A, B, C, D received exactly one email.
Image Credit: Wikimedia Email Logo


The answer is 9.

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4 solutions

Melissa Quail
Mar 7, 2015

The number of derangements of 4 is 9. There are 4! ways to send out the emails. So the answer is 9 4 ! × 24 = 9 \frac{9}{4!} \times 24 =9

Curtis Clement
Mar 7, 2015

In the following solution I will use casework and complementary counting.....

t o t a l n u m b e r o f c h o i c e s = 4 ! = 24 ( 1 ) \large \ total \ number \ of \ choices \ = 4! = 24 \ (1)

N u m b e r w i t h a l l c o r r e c t = 1 ( 2 ) \large \ Number \ with \ all \ correct \ = 1 \ (2)

Now it is impossible to have 3 correctly sent letters because the 4th one will automatically be sent to another correct e-mail address. To find the number of options for two correctly sent email, we consider that the probability of a single email being correctly sent = 1 4 \frac{1}{4} . So: N u m b e r w i t h t w o c o r r e c t = 4 ! 4 = 3 ! = 6 ( 3 ) \large \ Number \ with \ two \ correct \ = \frac{4!}{4} = 3! = 6 \ (3)

For one letter correctly sent, we are left with 3 emails and email addresses. The probability of the 1st one being wrong is 1 3 \frac{1}{3} and the probability of the 2nd one being wrong is 1 2 \frac{1}{2} (the last one just has 1 choice, so it is ignored). So:

N u m b e r w i t h o n e c o r r e c t = 4 ! × 2 3 × 1 2 = 8 ( 4 ) \large \ Number \ with \ one \ correct = 4! \times\frac{2}{3}\times\frac{1}{2} = 8 \ (4)

From equations 1,2,3 and 4: n u m b e r o f ( a l l ) i n c o r r e c t e m a i l s \large \ number \ of \ (all)incorrect \ emails = 24 ( 6 + 8 + 1 ) = 9 = 24 - (6+8+1) = \boxed{9} P ( a l l w r o n g ) = 9 24 = 3 8 \therefore\ P(all \ wrong ) = \frac{9}{24} = \frac{3}{8}

why you dont use this:

i ! n = 0 4 ( ( 1 ) n n ! ) i!\cdot \sum _{n=0}^4\left(\frac{\left(-1\right)^n}{\:n!}\right)

which gives:

4! * 3 8 = 9 A N S \frac{3}{8} = 9 \boxed{ANS}

Syed Baqir - 5 years, 9 months ago

I don't get how you use the probability of one being correct to find the number with 2 correct

sully P - 4 years, 9 months ago

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The two correct can be chosen in 4c2 (4!/4) ways. Out of the remaining 2 incorrect ones only one (incorrect) arrangement is possible because otherwise it will make 3 correct, which has previously been counted.

Nitin Gupta - 4 years, 6 months ago
Syed Baqir
Sep 10, 2015

why you dont use this:

i ! n = 0 4 ( ( 1 ) n n ! ) i!\cdot \sum _{n=0}^4\left(\frac{\left(-1\right)^n}{\:n!}\right)

which gives:

4! * 3 8 = 9 A N S \frac{3}{8} = 9 \boxed{ANS}

Terrell Bombb
Aug 1, 2016

we subtract all the possibilities with 1 or more correctly sent emails. 4 correctly sent emails: 1

3 correctly sent emails: redundant because 3 correctly sent makes the last one trivially obvious that it reaches the right recepient

2 correctly sent emails: 4C2 = 6, if at least two are correctly sent, the remaining two has two options: gets correctly sent or wrongly sent, therefore only one combination for every possible 2 email combination that's chosen to be correct

1 correctly sent email: for the remaining 3 emails yet to be sent, we count out the possibility that another email or another 2 emails gets sent correctly after the first one. therefore, for the remaining 3, there's only two permutations to make the remaining 3 all wrong. Thus, 4 x 2 = 8 number of all possible permutations: 4! = 24

24 8 6 1 24 \frac{24-8-6-1}{24}

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