A secretary must send 4 emails to person A, B, C, and D.
However on a given day, suppose this incompetent secretary sends those 4 emails in a completely randomly order, let P denote the probability of each person received the wrong email.
What is the value of 2 4 P ?
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In the following solution I will use casework and complementary counting.....
t o t a l n u m b e r o f c h o i c e s = 4 ! = 2 4 ( 1 )
N u m b e r w i t h a l l c o r r e c t = 1 ( 2 )
Now it is impossible to have 3 correctly sent letters because the 4th one will automatically be sent to another correct e-mail address. To find the number of options for two correctly sent email, we consider that the probability of a single email being correctly sent = 4 1 . So: N u m b e r w i t h t w o c o r r e c t = 4 4 ! = 3 ! = 6 ( 3 )
For one letter correctly sent, we are left with 3 emails and email addresses. The probability of the 1st one being wrong is 3 1 and the probability of the 2nd one being wrong is 2 1 (the last one just has 1 choice, so it is ignored). So:
N u m b e r w i t h o n e c o r r e c t = 4 ! × 3 2 × 2 1 = 8 ( 4 )
From equations 1,2,3 and 4: n u m b e r o f ( a l l ) i n c o r r e c t e m a i l s = 2 4 − ( 6 + 8 + 1 ) = 9 ∴ P ( a l l w r o n g ) = 2 4 9 = 8 3
why you dont use this:
i ! ⋅ ∑ n = 0 4 ( n ! ( − 1 ) n )
which gives:
4! * 8 3 = 9 A N S
I don't get how you use the probability of one being correct to find the number with 2 correct
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The two correct can be chosen in 4c2 (4!/4) ways. Out of the remaining 2 incorrect ones only one (incorrect) arrangement is possible because otherwise it will make 3 correct, which has previously been counted.
why you dont use this:
i ! ⋅ ∑ n = 0 4 ( n ! ( − 1 ) n )
which gives:
4! * 8 3 = 9 A N S
we subtract all the possibilities with 1 or more correctly sent emails. 4 correctly sent emails: 1
3 correctly sent emails: redundant because 3 correctly sent makes the last one trivially obvious that it reaches the right recepient
2 correctly sent emails: 4C2 = 6, if at least two are correctly sent, the remaining two has two options: gets correctly sent or wrongly sent, therefore only one combination for every possible 2 email combination that's chosen to be correct
1 correctly sent email: for the remaining 3 emails yet to be sent, we count out the possibility that another email or another 2 emails gets sent correctly after the first one. therefore, for the remaining 3, there's only two permutations to make the remaining 3 all wrong. Thus, 4 x 2 = 8 number of all possible permutations: 4! = 24
2 4 2 4 − 8 − 6 − 1
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The number of derangements of 4 is 9. There are 4! ways to send out the emails. So the answer is 4 ! 9 × 2 4 = 9