The probability that A will speak a truth is 0.3 and the probability that B will speak a truth is 0.9. When asked a question which both of them know the correct answer to, find the probability that their answers will contradict each other.
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This seems more densely written than it should be for an answer to a level 2 question. Consider a more conversational style. I also find the statement "when they contradict each other it means both of them are true or false" somewhat counter-intuitive and worth a little more detail.
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And also is that most people think the answer would be 33/50, a fraction, and not the decimal 0.66.
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Probability as a decimal is fine and used in plenty of contexts, especially since our fraction entry format is pretty awkward no matter how you slice it ("given a/b in lowest form, write a+b" or whatnot).
this is cool I am not that good at this kind of problem, that is why I got it horribly wrong. I think I need to practice more of these problems .
Let's first figure out when their answers won't contradict each other. That will happen when they both speak the truth or when they both don't speak the truth. The probability that they will both speak the truth is 0 . 3 × 0 . 9 = 0 . 2 7 . On the other hand, the probability that they both won't speak the truth is ( 1 − 0 . 3 ) × ( 1 − 0 . 9 ) = 0 . 0 7 . Hence, the probability that their answers won't contradict each other is 0 . 2 7 + 0 . 0 7 = 0 . 3 4 . Finally, the probability that their answers will contradict each other is 1 − 0 . 3 4 = 0 . 6 6 .
P(contradict each other)
= P(truthful A & lying B) + P(truthful B & lying A)
= 0.3 x (1 - 0.9) + 0.9 x (1 - 0.3)
= 0.3 x 0.1 + 0.9 x 0.7
= 0.03 + 0.63
= 0.66
= 66%
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If P ( A ) = Prob. that A speaks truth And P( A c )= Probability that A lies. Similarly for P ( B ) and P( B c ).
Hence when they contradict each other it means both of them are true or false. Hence P(Contradiction)= P ( A c ∩ B ) + P ( A ∩ B c ) .
Now as these events are independent, P ( C ) = P ( A c ) × P ( B ) + P ( A ) × P ( B c ) = 0 . 6 6