Everyone Lies Sometimes

The probability that A A will speak a truth is 0.3 and the probability that B B will speak a truth is 0.9. When asked a question which both of them know the correct answer to, find the probability that their answers will contradict each other.


The answer is 0.66.

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3 solutions

Md Zuhair
Dec 11, 2016

If P ( A ) P(A) = Prob. that A speaks truth And P( A c A^c )= Probability that A A lies. Similarly for P ( B ) P(B) and P( B c B^c ).

Hence when they contradict each other it means both of them are true or false. Hence P(Contradiction)= P ( A c B ) + P ( A B c ) P ( A^c \cap B) + P ( A \cap B^c) .
Now as these events are independent, P ( C ) = P ( A c ) × P ( B ) + P ( A ) × P ( B c ) = 0.66 P(C)= P (A^c) \times P(B) + P(A) \times P(B^c) = 0.66

This seems more densely written than it should be for an answer to a level 2 question. Consider a more conversational style. I also find the statement "when they contradict each other it means both of them are true or false" somewhat counter-intuitive and worth a little more detail.

Jason Dyer Staff - 4 years, 5 months ago

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And also is that most people think the answer would be 33/50, a fraction, and not the decimal 0.66.

Razzi Masroor - 4 years, 5 months ago

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Probability as a decimal is fine and used in plenty of contexts, especially since our fraction entry format is pretty awkward no matter how you slice it ("given a/b in lowest form, write a+b" or whatnot).

Jason Dyer Staff - 4 years, 5 months ago

this is cool I am not that good at this kind of problem, that is why I got it horribly wrong. I think I need to practice more of these problems .

Charlotte Milanese - 4 years, 5 months ago
Uros Stojkovic
Dec 21, 2016

Let's first figure out when their answers won't contradict each other. That will happen when they both speak the truth or when they both don't speak the truth. The probability that they will both speak the truth is 0.3 × 0.9 = 0.27 0.3\times 0.9=0.27 . On the other hand, the probability that they both won't speak the truth is ( 1 0.3 ) × ( 1 0.9 ) = 0.07 (1-0.3)\times (1-0.9)=0.07 . Hence, the probability that their answers won't contradict each other is 0.27 + 0.07 = 0.34 0.27+0.07= 0.34 . Finally, the probability that their answers will contradict each other is 1 0.34 = 1 - 0.34 = 0.66 \boxed{0.66} .

Saya Suka
Feb 19, 2021

P(contradict each other)
= P(truthful A & lying B) + P(truthful B & lying A)
= 0.3 x (1 - 0.9) + 0.9 x (1 - 0.3)
= 0.3 x 0.1 + 0.9 x 0.7
= 0.03 + 0.63
= 0.66
= 66%



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