Expected Cell Population

Consider an isolated habitat with plenty of resources, and a single cell of a particular unicellular organism. At the end of each day, d d , the cell divides into r r , where 1 r d 1 \leq r \leq d daughter cells with the probability proportional to r r itself. Find the expected cell population at the end of D D days.


If the expected value of cell population after a fortnight ( 14 14 days ) can be represented as a b \dfrac{a}{b} , where gcd ( a , b ) = 1 \gcd(a,b)=1 , submit the value of a + b a+b


The answer is 943496930104.

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1 solution

Kunal Gupta
Jan 25, 2019

Consider a day d d when each cell from previous day can divide into r r new daughter cells where 1 r d 1 \leq r \leq d .
As it's given that probability of cell p ( r ) p(r) dividing into r r daughter cells is directly proportional to r r itself, this means p ( r ) r p(r) \propto r p ( r ) = k r p(r) = kr As, total probability must be equal to 1, we can say that r = 1 d p ( r ) = r = 1 d k r = 1 \sum _{r=1}^{d}p(r) = \sum_{r=1}^d kr = 1 k = 2 d ( d + 1 ) k = \dfrac{2}{d(d+1)} p ( r ) = 2 r d ( d + 1 ) p(r) = \dfrac{2r}{d(d+1)} We know that each cell from day d 1 d-1 will behave exactly as before with the exception that it can now divide into atmost d d cells instead of d 1 d-1 . Hence, the expectation E [ d ] E[d] equals E [ d ] = E [ d 1 ] r = 1 d 2 r 2 d ( d + 1 ) E[d] = E[d-1]\sum_{r=1}^d \dfrac{2r^2}{d(d+1)} We can also state E [ D ] E[D] as E [ D ] = d = 1 D r = 1 d 2 r 2 d ( d + 1 ) = d = 1 D 2 d ( d + 1 ) d ( d + 1 ) ( 2 d + 1 ) 6 = d = 1 D 2 d + 1 3 E[D] = \prod_{d=1}^D\sum_{r=1}^d \dfrac{2r^2}{d(d+1)} = \prod_{d=1}^D \dfrac{2}{d(d+1)}\dfrac{d(d+1)(2d+1)}{6} = \prod_{d=1}^D \dfrac{2d+1}{3} We can write 1 3 5 ( 2 n + 1 ) = ( 2 n + 1 ) ! 2 n n ! 1\cdot3\cdot5\cdots(2n+1) = \dfrac{(2n+1)!}{2^n n!} So, E [ D ] = d = 1 D 2 d + 1 3 = ( 2 D + 1 ) ! 6 D D ! E[D] = \prod_{d=1}^D \dfrac{2d+1}{3} = \dfrac{(2D+1)!}{6^D D!} Putting D = 14 D = 14 E [ 14 ] = 943496929375 729 E[14] = \dfrac{943496929375}{729} giving the answer as 943496930104 \boxed{943496930104}

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