Farica-2

Probability Level 3

5% people of the town has been attacked by a new disease called "Farica". A test has been invented to identify the disease. But the test shows the right result 90% of time. In the rest 10%, it shows the wrong result. I tried the test and it showed that I have been attacked by Farica. But what is the probability(in percent) that I have really attacked by Farica??


The answer is 32.14285714.

Fahim Muhtamim by Fahim Muhtamim , 17, Bangladesh

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1 solution

Patrick Corn
Mar 12, 2020

Say we test 1000 1000 people. Of these, on average, 50 50 have the disease and 950 950 don't. On average, 45 45 of the people with the disease will test positive, and 95 95 of the people without the disease will test positive. So the probability that a person who tested positive has the disease is 45 45 + 95 = 32.14% . \frac{45}{45+95} = \fbox{32.14\%}.

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