Flip the Coin!

Consider the following game. You flip a coin until you get a tails. The number of dollars you win equals the number of coins you end up flipping. (So if you immediately get a tails, you win one dollar; if you get one heads before a tails, you win two dollars, etc.) What is the expectation value of your winnings (in Dollars) ?


The answer is 2.

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2 solutions

Nishant Rai
Jun 8, 2015

There is a 1 2 \dfrac 1 2 chance that you win one dollar, a 1 4 \dfrac 1 4 chance that you win two dollars, a 1 8 \dfrac 1 8 chance that you win three dollars, etc.

Therefore, the average value of your winnings is 1 2 + 2 4 + 3 8 + 4 16 . . . . . . . . ( 1 ) \dfrac 1 2 + \dfrac 2 4 + \dfrac 3 8 + \dfrac 4 {16} ........ (1)

This may be written as

( 1 2 + 1 4 + 1 8 + . . . . ) + ( 1 4 + 1 8 + 1 16 ) + ( 1 8 + 1 16 . . . . ) + . . . . . . . . . . . . ( 2 ) (\dfrac 1 2 + \dfrac 1 4 + \dfrac 1 8 + ....) + (\dfrac 1 4 + \dfrac 1 8 + \dfrac 1 {16}) + (\dfrac 1 8 + \dfrac 1 {16} ....)+............ (2)

which equals

1 + 1 2 + 1 4 + . . . . . . . . . = 2 1 + \dfrac 1 2 + \dfrac 1 4 + ......... = 2

So you expect to win an average of two dollars each time you play this game.

John Ross
Apr 11, 2018

An interesting variation of this problem presents a counterintuitive answer. If, after n flips, you receive 2 n 2^n dollars instead of n dollars, you should on average expect to win an infinite amount of money. If given the opportunity to play this game, you should, on average, pay any amount of money in order to play. Theoretically, at least, your very small chance of gaining money is made up for by the amount you would gain if you did make a net profit.

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