Future vs Spot

If the futures price exceeds the future value of spot plus cost of carry, what would you want to do?

Assume that the future and the spot are both available to trade.

Sell the future and buy the spot Buy the future and sell the spot Buy the spot Buy the future Need to know the interest rate Need to know the cost of carry Sell the spot Sell the future

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2 solutions

Vijay Anand
Mar 10, 2017

The solution for this problem is : Sell the Future and Buy the Spot

Since the Future is trading at a premium (a price more than the 'Spot plus Cost of Carry') and at maturity the Future price and Spot price has to become the same, you sell the Future in the anticipation that its price drops down to the 'Spot plus Cost of Carry'. You also buy the Spot to cover your risk should the price of the Future rise and it is the Spot price that increases as per the market expectation and meets the Future price at Expiry. (Not to be confused, the price of the Future is the price of the Spot at expiry) This way, if the price of the Future drops down to meet the Spot, you stand to gain from the drop in Price of the Future as well as any increase in the Spot. Should the Spot also witness a Price drop, the gains made by selling the Future will cover you. If the price of the Future remain constant and the price of Spot increases towards expiry, you stand to make gains from your purchase of the Spot. If the Price of the Future too raises, your gains from the Spot will cover your losses from the Future.

As @Calvin Lin mentioned, this method is called an arbitrage where you cover your naked exposure / risk, by taking a contrary view / position at the same or different market, on the same stock or commodity.

Brock Brown
Feb 5, 2015

I actually just kind of guessed, I'm not that familiar with concepts involved with the cost of carry. I'm under the impression that in order to maximize profits one should make sure that the amount the investor spent initially should not exceed the future price. Therefore, if one has the options of selling the future or buying the spot those are both good options, but to get the most money you should do both.

Calvin, if you could post a detailed solution so I could understand that would be super.

Good basic understanding. The reason why you do not one to just sell the future (or buy the spot), is that you are then exposed to price changes. What happens if after selling the future, the price rips through the roof? You thus have naked exposure.

Click on the Skill (top right corner) to read more on the wiki page about how arbitrage works

Calvin Lin Staff - 6 years, 4 months ago

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Calvin i just want to ask you if Brilliant will have a finance section, because recently i've noticed that you have been posting some finance questions. Thanks and sorry for the bad english.

Jesus Ulises Avelar - 6 years, 4 months ago

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Your English is great! There's nothing to apologize about.

We are considering having a finance section, and I am judging the response of the community.

Calvin Lin Staff - 6 years, 4 months ago

I would like to see a Finance section.

Richard Von Roble II - 6 years, 3 months ago

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