Unfair Coin

Suppose Paul and I are flipping an unfair coin, where we take turns flipping a coin, and the first person to flip a head wins. The coin has a 1 6 \frac{1}{6} chance of coming up heads and 5 6 \frac{5}{6} chance of coming up tails. If I go first, what is the probability that Paul wins?

1/6 11/30 5/11 5/36 6/11 1/2

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2 solutions

Since I flip first and Paul flip second. I flip all the odd number turn and Paul, even. For Paul to win he must flip a head at the last turn, which is even, and all flips before the last must be tail. The probability for that to happen is as follows:

P = 5 6 1 6 + 5 6 5 6 5 6 1 6 + 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 1 6 + = n = 0 1 6 ( 5 6 ) 2 n + 1 = 1 6 5 6 n = 0 ( 25 36 ) n = 5 36 ( 1 1 25 36 ) = 5 11 \begin{aligned} P & = {\color{#D61F06} \frac 56} \cdot {\color{#3D99F6}\frac 16} + {\color{#D61F06} \frac 56} \cdot {\color{#D61F06} \frac 56} \cdot {\color{#D61F06} \frac 56} \cdot {\color{#3D99F6}\frac 16} + {\color{#D61F06} \frac 56} \cdot {\color{#D61F06} \frac 56} \cdot {\color{#D61F06} \frac 56} \cdot {\color{#D61F06} \frac 56} \cdot {\color{#D61F06} \frac 56} \cdot {\color{#3D99F6}\frac 16} + \cdots \\ & = \sum_{n=0}^\infty {\color{#3D99F6}\frac 16} \left({\color{#D61F06}\frac 56}\right)^{2n+1} = \frac 16 \cdot \frac 56 \sum_{n=0}^\infty \left(\frac {25}{36}\right)^n = \frac 5{36}\left(\frac 1{1-\frac {25}{36}} \right) = \boxed{\dfrac 5{11}} \end{aligned}

Xiaoma Zhao
May 1, 2018

Let the probability that I win be P . P. If I flip a heads on my first toss, then the coin goes to him, so the game "restarts" with Paul flipping the coin. Therefore, the probability that Paul wins is 5 6 P . \frac 56 P. Since either one of us needs to win, we have P + 5 6 P = 1 P = 6 11 . P+\frac 56 P=1 \implies P=\frac 6{11}. Therefore, the probability of Paul winning is 5 6 P = 5 11 . \frac 56 P=\frac 5 {11}.

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