Getting a straight- dice style!

A bored gamber rolls nine (six-sided) fair dice. Let P P be the probability that each of the six possible results ( 1 6 ) (1-6) of a die roll happens at least once among the nine dice.

What is 10000 P \left \lfloor{10000P}\right \rfloor ?


The answer is 1890.

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2 solutions

Onion Carlip
Jul 16, 2015

So let us generalize this beauty. Consider a dice with m m sides and we throw it n n times. We are first interested in the number of outcomes that do NOT appear among the n n throws. For i { 1 , . . . , m } i\in \{1,...,m\} , we let A i A_i be the event that the outcome i i does not appear. For K { 1 , . . . , m } K\subseteq \{1,...,m\} ,We count the number of outcomes such that none of the elements of K K appear. So we have # i K A i = ( m # K ) n \# \bigcap_{i\in K} A_i = (m-\#K)^n Using the inclusion exclusion rule, we get # i = 1 m A i = k = 1 n ( 1 ) k 1 ( m k ) ( m k ) n \#\bigcup_{i=1}^m A_i = \sum_{k=1}^n (-1)^{k-1}\binom{m}{k}(m-k)^n Now by using De Morgan's law, we get # i = 1 m A i c = k = 0 n ( 1 ) k ( m k ) ( m k ) n \#\bigcap_{i=1}^m A_i^c = \sum_{k=0}^n (-1)^{k}\binom{m}{k}(m-k)^n Now we find all the samples which exclude exactly j j of the m m values. To generate those, we can first choose the j j values to be excluded, which can happen in ( m j ) \binom{m}{j} ways. Then we find the number of samples such that the remaining are not excluded. From our previous calculation, we get k = 0 n ( 1 ) k ( m j k ) ( m j k ) n \sum_{k=0}^n (-1)^{k}\binom{m-j}{k}(m-j-k)^n Thus the total number of samples that excludes exactly j j values is ( m j ) k = 0 n ( 1 ) k ( m j k ) ( m j k ) n \binom{m}{j}\sum_{k=0}^n (-1)^{k}\binom{m-j}{k}(m-j-k)^n The probability that j j values are excluded is then just the above number divided by all possible samples, which is m n m^n , we get k = 0 n ( 1 ) k ( m j k ) ( 1 j + k m ) n \sum_{k=0}^n (-1)^{k}\binom{m-j}{k}(1-\frac{j+k}{m})^n The probability that 0 0 values are excluded is then just setting j = 0 j = 0 : k = 0 n ( 1 ) k ( m k ) ( 1 k m ) n \sum_{k=0}^n (-1)^{k}\binom{m}{k}(1-\frac{k}{m})^n So specializing to m = 6 m=6 and n = 9 n=9 , we get k = 0 9 ( 1 ) k ( 6 k ) ( 1 k 6 ) 9 \sum_{k=0}^9 (-1)^{k}\binom{6}{k}(1-\frac{k}{6})^9 This gives 245 1296 0.189043209876543209876543209876543209876543209876543209876543... \frac{245}{1296} \sim 0.189043209876543209876543209876543209876543209876543209876543...

Moderator note:

Great generalization!

Kenny Lau
Jul 22, 2015

Divide this problem into three cases.

CASE ONE: 123456ABC

  • ABC are distinct: ( 6 3 ) \binom63
  • Rearranging: × 9 ! 2 ! 2 ! 2 ! \times\dfrac{9!}{2!2!2!}
  • = 907200 =907200

CASE TWO: 123456AAB

  • A and B are distinct: 2 ( 6 2 ) 2\binom62 (multiply by two because there are two A's but only one B
  • Rearranging: × 9 ! 3 ! 2 ! \times\dfrac{9!}{3!2!}
  • = 907200 =907200

CASE THREE: 123456AAA

  • A: ( 6 1 ) \binom61
  • Rearranging: × 9 ! 4 ! \times\dfrac{9!}{4!}
  • = 90720 =90720

THEREFORE

  • Number of cases matching criteria = 907200 907200 + 907200 907200 + 90720 90720 = 1905120 1905120 .
  • Total number of cases = 6 9 6^9 = 10077696 10077696
  • Required probability = 1905120 10077696 \dfrac{1905120}{10077696} = 245 1296 \dfrac{245}{1296} = 0.1890 432098765 0.1890\overline{432098765}

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