Go, Super Boomers!

In an interscholar football (soccer) championship, Alfred and Bruce are playing for their school. In a team of 11 players, 2 will be chosen to name the team however they want. Alfred and Bruce decided that, if they both got chosen, they would name the team "Super Boomers". Also, if only one of them gets chosen, they would try to convince the other player to accept the name they had created. Alfred, as the popular boy he is, has a chance of 80% of convincing the other player to accept the name. Bruce, more reserved and shy, has only a 40% chance of convincing him. What is the probability of the team receiving the name "Super Boomers"?

Notes:

  • Consider that, if they both get chosen, the chance of the name being chosen is 100%.

  • Every player has a equal chance of being chosen.

  • Neglect the lack of creativity of Alfred and Bruce in choosing a good name.

59 275 \frac{59}{275} 32 275 \frac{32}{275} 59 550 \frac{59}{550} 71 550 \frac{71}{550}

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2 solutions

Leonardo Scarton
Sep 24, 2015

First situation: They both get chosen. That would be described as: 1 11 × 1 10 × 2 = 2 110 = 1 55 \frac{1}{11} \times \frac{1}{10} \times 2 = \frac{2}{110} = \frac{1}{55} (Notice that you have to multiply it by 2, because it can be either Alfred and Bruce, or Bruce and Alfred).

Since the chance of the name being chosen is 100%, we just have to multiply the result by 1.

Now, second situation: Alfred gets chosen, but not Bruce. That would be described as: 1 11 × 9 10 × 2 = 18 110 = 9 55 \frac{1}{11} \times \frac{9}{10} \times 2 = \frac{18}{110} = \frac{9}{55} (In this situation, you need to multiply by 2 because Alfred can either be the first chosen player or the second one)

Since the chance of Alfred convincing the other players is 80%, we shall multiply the results by 4 5 \frac{4}{5} : 9 55 × 4 5 = 36 275 \frac{9}{55} \times \frac{4}{5} = \frac{36}{275} Now, last situation: Bruce gets chosen, but not Alfred. That would also be described as: 1 11 × 9 10 × 2 = 18 110 = 9 55 \frac{1}{11} \times \frac{9}{10} \times 2 = \frac{18}{110} = \frac{9}{55} (Multiply by 2 for the same reason)

Since the chance of Bruce convincing the other player is only 40%, we shall multiply the result by 2 5 \frac{2}{5} : 9 55 × 2 5 = 18 275 \frac{9}{55} \times \frac{2}{5} = \frac{18}{275} In the end, jus sum it all: 1 55 + 36 275 + 18 275 = 5 + 36 + 18 275 = 59 275 \frac{1}{55} + \frac{36}{275} + \frac{18}{275} = \frac{5 + 36 + 18}{275} = \boxed{\frac{59}{275}}

Nice one.. !!!!

Mohamed Shuaib Hasan - 5 years, 8 months ago

There are some issues with the way the question has been designed. 1. If Bruce/Alfred is not chosen, the team is short by 1 scholar. 2. If both are not chosen, the team is short by two scholars. 3. If a team of 11 players is to be chosen, both Bruce and Alfred have to be chosen (considering there are only 11 students in the school). 4. If there are more than 11 scholars in the school, the probability of choosing Bruce & Alfred out the "n" number of scholars will change, e.g, if there are 20 scholars, answer would be = (1/20) (1/19) (18/18) 2 + (1/20) (18/19) 2 (0.8) + (1/20) (18/19) 2(0.4) = 113/950.

The question is incomplete without the number of scholars given.

Nikhil Kaushik - 5 years, 8 months ago

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As the problem states, both Bruce and Alfred are players on an 11 person team. From members of the team, a team name is to be chosen by 2 members of the team chosen at random..... It does not matter the number of students at the school. The only thing that is not explicitly stated is that if Bruce and Alfred are both not chosen, then there is a 0% chance of the name Super Boomers being chosen.

Randall Wills - 5 years, 8 months ago

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Got it! Thanks.

Nikhil Kaushik - 5 years, 8 months ago

[(1/ 11) A + (10/ 11) A'][(1/ 11) B + (10/ 11) B'] is a notation to trace instead of [(1/ 11) + (10/ 11) ][(1/ 11) + (10/ 11)]

(1/ 11) (1/ 11) A B + (1/ 11) (10/ 11) A B' + (10/ 11) (1/ 11) A' B + (10/ 11) (10/ 11) A' B' is a result of fair chances between the two and among all.

Just like dicing, after two persons are selected fairly or equally, probability is counted. In this context, there is no difference of chance between A and B.

If (1/ 11)(1/ 10)(1/ 9)(1/ 8) continues, then their chances are ever changing.

After situation is settled, we start to calculate. [1/ 11 + 10/ 11]^N = 1 always.

Lu Chee Ket - 5 years, 7 months ago

For two (1/ 11)(9/ 10) above, can you explain why you don't take (10/ 11)(1/ 10) else (10/ 11)(1/ 11) instead?

Lu Chee Ket - 5 years, 7 months ago

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It's because you have to consider that, in those situations, only one of the two boys will be chosen. The other will be one of the 9 other players. The denominator is still 11 x 10 because we're calculating from the total of possibilities.

Leonardo Scarton - 5 years, 5 months ago

Let's divide the possible pairs of players in 4 categories and count how possible formations there would be:

1) Alfred and Bruce - Only 1 formation

2) Alfred and someone who's not Bruce - 9 formations (Alfred plus someone out of the 9 that's left)

3) Bruce and someone who's not Alfred - 9 formations (same explanation)

4) Two players there are neither Alfred or Bruce - 36 formations = C9,2

Now the probability of the name "Super Boomers" being chosen for each categories is, respectively, 100%, 80%, 40% and 0%. So I would certainly have that name if the pick was of category 1, and I could have it in 7,2 picks of the 2 category, 3,6 picks of the third category and 0 picks of category 4. In other words I could have that name in 11,8 picks of the total 55, thus the probability would be 11 , 8 55 = 59 275 \frac{11,8}{55} = \frac{59}{275} .

Ps: I understand this is not a proper and formal probabilistic solution, but its foundation are on a probabilistic line of thought, and I thought it would serve as such. I also understand that 11 , 8 55 \frac{11,8}{55} is not very clean way to write math. ;)

Your explanation and solution to the problem are very good. A probability is simply a number p such that 0<=p<=1. The answer 11.8/55 is actually what I came up with when I solved the problem as you did. There's nothing that says 11.8/55 is any better/worse than 59/275. The latter is preferable since it's the ratio of 2 integers.

Randall Wills - 5 years, 8 months ago

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Thanks, Randall. ;)

Felipe Perestrelo - 5 years, 8 months ago

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