Go to the Right, Counter!

Suppose I play a game involving a counter and a 5 5 -square grid, as shown above.
Assign the values 1 1 to 5 5 to the squares in the grid from left to right.
I start with the counter on square 1. 1.

On each turn, I roll a standard six-sided die.
If the number that is rolled is less than or equal to the number (i.e. between 1 1 and 5 5 inclusive) of the square which the counter is on, I move the counter to the left one square. Otherwise, I move the counter to the right one square.

If I move the counter onto the green square, which is shown in the picture, I win.
However, if I move the counter onto the red square, I lose.

If the probability that I win the game is represented by A B , \frac{A}{B}, for positive coprime integers A A and B , B, what is the value of B A ? B - A?


The answer is 8.

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1 solution

Steven Yuan
Jan 8, 2015

For integers 0 n 6 , 0 \leq n \leq 6, let P n P_{n} be the probability that if the counter were on square n , n, I win the game. (We let the green square be square 6 6 and the red square to be square 0 0 .) From the description given in the problem, if the counter were on square n , n, it has a n 6 \frac{n}{6} chance of moving left to square n 1 n - 1 and a 6 n 6 \frac{6 - n}{6} chance of moving right to square n + 1. n + 1. If the counter moves right, then the probability that I win would then become P n + 1 , P_{n+1}, by our definition. Similarly, if the counter moves left, the probability that I win is P n 1 . P_{n-1}. The combination of both of these probabilities gives P n , P_{n}, so we get

P n = ( n 6 ) P n 1 + ( 6 n 6 ) P n + 1 . P_{n} = \left ( \frac{n}{6} \right ) P_{n-1} +\left ( \frac{6 - n}{6} \right ) P_{n + 1}.

Noticing that P 0 = 0 P_{0} = 0 (I lose the game) and P 6 = 1 P_{6} = 1 (I win the game), we get the system of equations

5 6 P 2 = P 1 1 3 P 1 + 2 3 P 3 = P 2 1 2 P 2 + 1 2 P 4 = P 3 2 3 P 3 + 1 3 P 5 = P 4 5 6 P 4 + 1 6 = P 5 . \begin{aligned} \frac{5}{6} P_{2} &= P_{1} \\ \frac{1}{3} P_{1} + \frac{2}{3} P_{3} &= P_{2} \\ \frac{1}{2} P_{2} + \frac{1}{2} P_{4} &= P_{3} \\ \frac{2}{3} P_{3} + \frac{1}{3} P_{5} &= P_{4} \\ \frac{5}{6} P_{4} + \frac{1}{6} & = P_{5}. \\ \end{aligned}

Solving this for P 1 P_{1} yields P 1 = 5 13 , P_{1} = \frac{5}{13}, so our desired answer is 13 5 = 8 . 13 - 5 = \boxed{8}.

You could simplify it by the fact that P 3 P_3 is equal to 1 2 \frac{1}{2} , since from the middle square, it is equally probable that you reach either side. Also, the diagram is really misleading; I calculated P 2 P_2 initially. -.-

Siddhartha Srivastava - 6 years, 5 months ago

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That's why you always read the question! ;-)

Steven Yuan - 6 years, 5 months ago

This is exactly what I did, even the symbols denoting the probabilities are the same O.O

Pratik Shastri - 6 years, 5 months ago

Nice problem

Alex Wang - 6 years, 5 months ago

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