Suppose I play a game involving a counter and a
-square grid, as shown above.
Assign the values
to
to the squares in the grid from left to right.
I start with the counter on square
On each turn, I roll a standard six-sided die.
If the number that is rolled is less than or equal to the number (i.e. between
and
inclusive) of the square which the counter is on, I move the counter to the left one square. Otherwise, I move the counter to the right one square.
If I move the counter onto the green square, which is shown in the picture, I win.
However, if I move the counter onto the red square, I lose.
If the probability that I win the game is represented by for positive coprime integers and what is the value of
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For integers 0 ≤ n ≤ 6 , let P n be the probability that if the counter were on square n , I win the game. (We let the green square be square 6 and the red square to be square 0 .) From the description given in the problem, if the counter were on square n , it has a 6 n chance of moving left to square n − 1 and a 6 6 − n chance of moving right to square n + 1 . If the counter moves right, then the probability that I win would then become P n + 1 , by our definition. Similarly, if the counter moves left, the probability that I win is P n − 1 . The combination of both of these probabilities gives P n , so we get
P n = ( 6 n ) P n − 1 + ( 6 6 − n ) P n + 1 .
Noticing that P 0 = 0 (I lose the game) and P 6 = 1 (I win the game), we get the system of equations
6 5 P 2 3 1 P 1 + 3 2 P 3 2 1 P 2 + 2 1 P 4 3 2 P 3 + 3 1 P 5 6 5 P 4 + 6 1 = P 1 = P 2 = P 3 = P 4 = P 5 .
Solving this for P 1 yields P 1 = 1 3 5 , so our desired answer is 1 3 − 5 = 8 .