Gundersons should be careful

An actuary at ManyProvince Insurance estimates that Mr. Gunderson has a 0.02 probability of having an accident in the next year, and Mrs. Gunderson has a 0.015 probability of having an accident in the next year. The actuary also estimates that the event that Mr. Gunderson has an accident is independent of the event that Mrs. Gunderson has an accident.

Using the actuary's estimates, what is the probability that either Gunderson will have an accident in the next year?

0.0353 0.0353 0.035 0.035 0.0003 0.0003 0.0347 0.0347

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2 solutions

Manuel Kahayon
Jun 11, 2016

From the given, the probability that Mr. Gunderson doesn't have an accident is 1 0.02 = 0.98 1-0.02 = 0.98 .

The probability that Mrs. Gunderson doesn't have an accident is 1 0.015 = 0.985 1-0.015 = 0.985 .

Then the probability that they both don't have any accidents is just the product of the individual probabilities, i.e. ( 0.985 ) ( 0.98 ) = 0.9653 (0.985)(0.98)=0.9653

Our answer is the complement of this, i.e. 1 0.9653 = 0.0347 1-0.9653 = 0.0347 .

Andy Hayes
Jun 7, 2016

Relevant wiki: Probabilistic Principle of Inclusion and Exclusion

Let A A be the event that Mr. Gunderson has an accident, and let B B be the event that Mrs. Gunderson has an accident. It is given that P ( A ) = 0.02 P(A)=0.02 and P ( B ) = 0.015 P(B)=0.015 .

A A and B B are independent. By the rule of product , P ( A B ) = P ( A ) × P ( B ) = 0.0003 P(A\cap B)=P(A)\times P(B)=0.0003 .

The problem is asking for P ( A B ) P(A\cup B) .

Using the PPIE, this is:

P ( A B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) P ( A B ) = 0.0347 P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cap B)=\boxed{0.0347} .

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