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Algebra Level 2

What is the probability that two people don't have the same birth date? Write the answer up to five decimal digits....


The answer is 0.99726.

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3 solutions

Sourav Kar
Feb 22, 2014

(365×364)/(365×365)

i made a serious error in the question.... actually the answer is [(365X364)(3/4)/(365X365)]+[(365X366)*(1/4)/(366X366)], but both the answers i.e. the one mentioned by Sourav Kar and the original match to 5 decimal places.... sorry for that.... Also if you did use this method (without considering a leap year) then you got the right answer using the wrong method.... sorry for the inconvenience....

Anuj Modi - 7 years, 3 months ago

What about leap years?

Harshal Sheth - 7 years, 3 months ago

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If it had been a leap year then it would be (366x365)/(366x366).I guess we are not considering it to be a leap year.

Aman Jaiswal - 7 years, 3 months ago

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In fact, having a birthday on that extra day has only a 1 4 \dfrac{1}{4} th chance than all the other dates, so the probability would not be 366 × 365 366 × 366 \dfrac{366\times 365}{366\times 366} as you claimed.

Daniel Liu - 7 years, 3 months ago

Exactly!

Aman Jaiswal - 7 years, 3 months ago

do damn typical

TEHREEM SADAQAT - 7 years, 3 months ago
Daniel Liu
Feb 23, 2014

Intended solution: Let the first person pick a birthday. Now, the second person can pick any birthday EXCEPT the birthday that the first person picked; therefore the probability is simply 364 365 0.99726 \dfrac{364}{365}\approx \boxed{0.99726}

My observations: I noticed that the problem writer assumed that nobody will ever have a birthday on the leap day, February 29. I will take this extra day into account in this second solution:

Since the leap day occurs every 4 4 years, it makes sense for our two people to pick from a set of dates spanning 4 4 years. That is, we are picking from a set of 365 + 365 + 365 + 366 = 1096 365+365+365+366=1096 dates.

Case 1: the first person's birthday is not on the leap day. This has a probability of 1095 1096 \dfrac{1095}{1096} . Note that after the first person picks her birthday, the second person can pick any date except for the 4 4 dates that the first person covers. This means that there is a probability of 1092 1096 \dfrac{1092}{1096} that the second person will pick a different birthday than the first person. Therefore the total probability for this case is 1095 1096 1092 1096 \dfrac{1095}{1096}\cdot \dfrac{1092}{1096} .

Case 2: The first person's birthday is on the leap day. This has probability 1 1096 \dfrac{1}{1096} . Note that the second person now has a probability of 1095 1096 \dfrac{1095}{1096} of not picking the same birthday as the first person. Therefore the total probability for this case is 1 1096 1095 1096 \dfrac{1}{1096}\cdot \dfrac{1095}{1096} .

Adding these two probabilities, we get the final probability to be 1095 1096 1092 1096 + 1 1096 1095 1096 0.99635 \dfrac{1095}{1096}\cdot \dfrac{1092}{1096}+\dfrac{1}{1096}\cdot \dfrac{1095}{1096}\approx \boxed{0.99635} which is indeed a different answer than the intended.

Actually i see an error in one of the obs. you have made and that is: You have taken 4 simultaneous years and considered all days different, but it is asked for one year an also a birthday on march second 1995 can also be on march 2, 1996 but both are considered as same birth dates.... it is not asked for years actually... only the days should match...

Anuj Modi - 7 years, 3 months ago

i made a serious error in the question.... actually the answer is [(365X364)(3/4)/(365X365)]+[(365X366)*(1/4)/(366X366)], but both the answers i.e. the one mentioned by Sourav Kar and the original match to 5 decimal places.... sorry for that.... Also if you did use this method (without considering a leap year) then you got the right answer using the wrong method.... sorry for the inconvenience....

Anuj Modi - 7 years, 3 months ago
Mark Mottian
Feb 22, 2014

The probability that two people have the same birthday is 1/365 x 1/365. So the probability that two people don't have the same probability is 1 - (1/365 x 1/365) which evaluates to 0.9999924939...

This is only for one specific day. You have to multiply by 365 365 to get the answer for every day of the year.

Trevor B. - 7 years, 3 months ago

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