Happy family

A family has three sons, four daughters and two parents. The nine family members are divided into three triplets at random. What is the expectation of the number of triplets made up of a parent, a son and a daughter?

6 7 \frac{6}{7} 5 8 \frac{5}{8} 7 9 \frac{7}{9}

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3 solutions

Indicators 》

X = X 1 + X 2 + X 3 X=X_1+X_2+X_3 , where X X is the expectation for the three triplets together , and X i X_i is the expectation for the triplet X i X_i ,

E X 1 = E X 2 = E X 3 = ( 2 1 ) ( 4 1 ) ( 3 1 ) ( 9 3 ) = 24 84 = 2 7 EX_1=EX_2=EX_3=\frac{\binom{2}{1}\binom{4}{1}\binom{3}{1}}{\binom{9}{3}}=\frac{24}{84}=\frac{2}{7}

E X = E X 1 + E X 2 + E X 3 = 3 2 7 = 6 7 EX=EX_1+EX_2+EX_3=3*\frac{2}{7}=\frac{6}{7}

Mr. India
Dec 16, 2018

No. of selecting 3 members from 9 is 9C3 =84

Possibilities in which there is one parent, one son and one daughter is 2×3×4 =24 as there are 2 parents 3 sons and 4 daughters.

As there are 3 triplets, any of them can have this unique triplet.

Therefore probability is (24×3)/84 = 6/7

K T
Dec 17, 2018

It is right that the probability for a certain triplet to be made up of {p,d,s} is 24 84 = 2 7 \frac{24}{84}=\frac{2}{7} . But since the probabilities for different triplets to be a psd-triplet are dependent, we cannot just say the answer is 3 × 2 7 3×\frac{2}{7} .

The expectancy value for a quantity q is defined as Q e x p e c t e d = i Q ( A i ) P ( A i ) Q_{expected}=\sum_i {Q(A_i) P(A_i) } , where the A i A_i are the eventualities, Q Q their associated quantities and P their probabilities. In our case we let the eventualities A i A_i be defined by the number of psd-triplets.

We list the possible ways:

triple 1 triple 2 triple 3 Q probability
no no no 0 P 0 P_0
no no yes 1 P 1 P_1
no yes no 1 P 1 P_1
no yes yes 2 P 2 P_2
yes no no 1 P 1 P_1
yes no yes 2 P 2 P_2
yes yes no 2 P 2 P_2
yes yes yes 3 P 3 P_3

The trouble is that P 1 P_1 and P 2 P_2 are unknown, and not very easy to calculate. What we do know however is the eventualities where a certain triplet is a psd-triplet is P 1 + 2 P 2 + P 3 = 2 7 P_1+2P_2+P_3=\frac{2}{7} and, most importantly, that P 3 = 0 P_3=0 since there are only two parents.

Only thanks to the fact that P 3 = 0 P_3=0 , and using P ( 1 ) = 3 P 1 P(1)=3P_1 and P ( 2 ) = 3 P 2 P(2)=3P_2 we can say that Q e x p e c t e d = ( ( 0 P ( 0 ) + 1 P ( 1 ) + 2 P ( 2 ) + 3 P ( 3 ) = 3 P 1 + 6 P 2 + 3 P 3 = 3 ( P 1 + 2 P 2 + P 3 ) = 3 × 2 7 = 6 7 Q_{expected} = ((0 P(0)+1 P(1)+ 2P(2)+3P(3)= 3P_1+ 6P_2+3P_3=3(P_1+2P_2+P_3)=3×\frac{2}{7}=\boxed{\frac{6}{7}} .

if you know indicators you can say 3 2 7 3*\frac{2}{7} , thanks for your solution

ابراهيم فقرا - 2 years, 5 months ago

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