A family has three sons, four daughters and two parents. The nine family members are divided into three triplets at random. What is the expectation of the number of triplets made up of a parent, a son and a daughter?
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No. of selecting 3 members from 9 is 9C3 =84
Possibilities in which there is one parent, one son and one daughter is 2×3×4 =24 as there are 2 parents 3 sons and 4 daughters.
As there are 3 triplets, any of them can have this unique triplet.
Therefore probability is (24×3)/84 = 6/7
It is right that the probability for a certain triplet to be made up of {p,d,s} is 8 4 2 4 = 7 2 . But since the probabilities for different triplets to be a psd-triplet are dependent, we cannot just say the answer is 3 × 7 2 .
The expectancy value for a quantity q is defined as Q e x p e c t e d = ∑ i Q ( A i ) P ( A i ) , where the A i are the eventualities, Q their associated quantities and P their probabilities. In our case we let the eventualities A i be defined by the number of psd-triplets.
We list the possible ways:
triple 1 | triple 2 | triple 3 | Q | probability |
no | no | no | 0 | P 0 |
no | no | yes | 1 | P 1 |
no | yes | no | 1 | P 1 |
no | yes | yes | 2 | P 2 |
yes | no | no | 1 | P 1 |
yes | no | yes | 2 | P 2 |
yes | yes | no | 2 | P 2 |
yes | yes | yes | 3 | P 3 |
The trouble is that P 1 and P 2 are unknown, and not very easy to calculate. What we do know however is the eventualities where a certain triplet is a psd-triplet is P 1 + 2 P 2 + P 3 = 7 2 and, most importantly, that P 3 = 0 since there are only two parents.
Only thanks to the fact that P 3 = 0 , and using P ( 1 ) = 3 P 1 and P ( 2 ) = 3 P 2 we can say that Q e x p e c t e d = ( ( 0 P ( 0 ) + 1 P ( 1 ) + 2 P ( 2 ) + 3 P ( 3 ) = 3 P 1 + 6 P 2 + 3 P 3 = 3 ( P 1 + 2 P 2 + P 3 ) = 3 × 7 2 = 7 6 .
if you know indicators you can say 3 ∗ 7 2 , thanks for your solution
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Indicators 》
X = X 1 + X 2 + X 3 , where X is the expectation for the three triplets together , and X i is the expectation for the triplet X i ,
E X 1 = E X 2 = E X 3 = ( 3 9 ) ( 1 2 ) ( 1 4 ) ( 1 3 ) = 8 4 2 4 = 7 2
E X = E X 1 + E X 2 + E X 3 = 3 ∗ 7 2 = 7 6