Heat versus Spurs
The San Antonio Heat play the Miami Spurs in a best-of-seven series that ends as soon as one team wins four games. Suppose that the probability that the Heat win Game is . What is the probability that the Heat will win the series?
The answer is 0.5.
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1 solution
If we imagine that the series always continues to seven games even after one team has won four, this will never change the winner of the series.
Notice also that the probability that the San Antonio Heat will win Game n is precisely the probability that the Miami Spurs will win Game 8 − n .
Therefore, the probability that the Miami Spurs win at least four games is the same as the probability that the San Antonio Heat win at least four games, namely, 2 1 or 0 . 5 .