Hey just toss it

Find the expected number of tails coming out before first head. Given that the coin is biased where the ​probability of getting a tail is 0.95.


The answer is 19.

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1 solution

Nicola Mignoni
Apr 22, 2018

Let be X X the random variable that gives us the number of tails after a first head. Given that P ( tail ) = 19 20 \mathbb{P}(\text{tail})=\frac{19}{20} and P ( head ) = 1 20 \mathbb{P}(\text{head})=\frac{1}{20} , P ( X ) \mathbb{P}(X) is

P ( X = n ) = ( 1 20 ) ( 19 20 n ) \displaystyle \mathbb{P}(X=n)=\bigg(\frac{1}{20}\bigg)\bigg( \frac{19}{20}^n\bigg) .

The expected value of X X is

E [ X = n ] = n = 1 + n ( 1 20 ) ( 19 20 n ) = 19 \displaystyle \mathbb{E}[X=n]=\sum_{n=1}^{+\infty} n \bigg(\frac{1}{20}\bigg)\bigg( \frac{19}{20}^n\bigg)=\boxed{19}

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