A bear hides either in Bush with a probability of or behind Bush with a probability of . A hunter has 10 bullets each of which can be fired either at bush or . Hunter hits each target independently with an accuracy of . How many bullets can be fired at Bush to hit the bear with Maximum Probability?
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Let T denotes the event that the bear is Hit when x bullets are fired at bush A .
Let E 1 , E 2 denotes the event as P ( E 1 ) = 2 5 9 and P ( E 2 ) = 2 5 1 6
So P ( E 1 T ) = 1 − ( 4 3 ) x
and P ( E 2 T ) = 1 − ( 4 3 ) ( 1 0 − x )
P ( T ) = 2 5 9 ( 1 − ( 4 3 ) x ) + 2 5 1 6 ( 1 − ( 4 3 ) ( 1 0 − x ) )
d x d P ( T ) = { 2 5 9 ( 4 3 ) x − 2 5 1 6 ( 4 3 ) ( 1 0 − x ) } ln ( 3 4 )
For Maxima or Minima d x d P ( T ) = 0
⇒ 2 5 9 ( 4 3 ) x = 2 5 1 6 ( 4 3 ) ( 1 0 − x ) ⇒ 1 6 9 ( 4 3 ) x = ( 4 3 ) ( 1 0 − x ) ⇒ ( 4 3 ) ( x + 2 ) = ( 4 3 ) ( 1 0 − x ) ⇒ x + 2 = 1 0 − x ⇒ x = 4 also at x = 4 d x 2 d 2 P ( T ) < 0 So P ( T ) is Max at x = 4