How fast will this become popular?

Suppose the probability that this problem will become popular half an hour after posting it is 13682 16807 \dfrac{13682}{16807} . Assume that the probability this problem will become popular at any given time within this half hour remains the same. Then, the probability that this problem will become popular 6 minutes after posting it equals a b \dfrac{a}{b} , where a , b a, b are relatively prime positive integers. Find a + b a + b .


The answer is 9.

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2 solutions

Steven Yuan
May 19, 2015

Let p p be the probability that this problem becomes popular within 6 minutes of posting it. The value of 1 p 1 - p equals the probability that this problem does not become popular within 6 minutes. Since the probability of popularity remains the same throughout the half hour, we have that ( 1 p ) 5 (1 - p)^5 equals the probability that this problem does not become popular within 30 minutes. We know that this value equals 3125 16807 \dfrac{3125}{16807} from the information we are given. Solving for p p , we get p = 2 7 p = \dfrac{2}{7} , so a + b = 2 + 7 = 9 a + b = 2 + 7 = \boxed{9} .

Very very good!!Thanx for sharing the problem and the solution!!Did u make the problem? @Steven Yuan

Adarsh Kumar - 6 years ago
Rajen Kapur
May 20, 2015

Half an hour is 5 blocks of 6 minutes each. As 13682 16807 = 1 3125 16807 = 1 5 5 7 5 \displaystyle \dfrac {13682}{16807} = 1 -\dfrac {3125}{16807} = 1 - \dfrac { 5^5}{ 7^5} . Hence the probability of not becoming popular is 5/7 and consequently that of becoming popular is 2/7. Answer: 9

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