How good does Omega need to be?

Logic Level 1

If the payoff for Newcomb's problem is as listed above, then what is the probability p p of Omega guessing correctly at which the expected payoff for choosing only box A A is equal to the expected payoff for choosing both boxes?


The answer is 0.5005.

Adam Strandberg by Adam Strandberg , 28, USA

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1 solution

Max Mas
Mar 8, 2016
  • Expected payoff choosing A: 1,000,000 × p + (1 - p) × 0
  • Expected payoff choosing A + B: 1,000 × p + (1 - p) × 1,001,000

So we have to resolve:

1,000,000 × p + (1 - p) × 0 = 1,000 × p + (1 - p) × 1,001,000

And the solution is p = 0.5005

9 Helpful 0 Interesting 0 Brilliant 0 Confused

am i right if i think that omega can either think that i can either choose A or A+B i.e. the probability of omega 's decision will be 0.5 and thats the answer

Pritish Singhal - 5 years, 3 months ago

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